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Employment and the “Investment Gap”: An Econometric Model of European Imbalances

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  • Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco

Abstract

We specify a VEC model based on six main macroeconomic imbalances to explain the Great European Recession, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, from 1999 to 2013, estimating their long-term relationships. We focus on employment and unemployment as the main imbalances and identify consumption and investment slumps, prompted by fiscal consolidation, as the causes and current account rebalance and low inflation as the main consequences. Our main results are the following: a) public investment is the main policy instrument which can foster employment, prompting private investment and growth, exports can only partly balance a falling domestic demand; b) the unemployment-current account trade-off is a structural constraint to a lower unemployment level; c) mild deflation set in as a consequence of the consumption slump and oil price decline; d) breaks dates for consumption and inflation thresholds are estimated; and e) Germany successfully passed through the European recession by sharply increasing its exports and reshaping its economic role.

Suggested Citation

  • Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco, 2015. "Employment and the “Investment Gap”: An Econometric Model of European Imbalances," MPRA Paper 64113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
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    Keywords

    E21; E22; E24; E31; F32; F45; O52;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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