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延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?
[Will Postponing Retirement Crowd out Youth Employment?]

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Chuanchuan
  • Zhao, Yaohui

Abstract

In the situation of rapid population aging, postponing retirement is a timely and effective measure in relieving pressure of old age support. However, many people think that postponing retirement will crowd out youth employment. Using data in China, this paper shows that this judgment cannot be supported by empirical evidence. Using data from 1990 census, 2000 census and 2005 1% population sample survey, this paper examines the impact of employment of older persons on employment of younger persons. Our OLS estimation results suggest that employment of younger persons is positively instead of negatively correlated with employment of older persons. We further dealt with the potential endogeneity of the OLS estimation by employing two-way fix-effects and TSLS estimation strategies. The results still suggest that increase of employment of older persons will promote rather than depress employment of younger persons. We also found a positive effect of employment of older persons on young workers’ wage. This study suggests that postponing retirement wouldn’t crowd out employment of younger persons.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chuanchuan & Zhao, Yaohui, 2012. "延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?
    [Will Postponing Retirement Crowd out Youth Employment?]
    ," MPRA Paper 52931, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52931
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    2. Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan & David A. Wise, 2009. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 14647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kapteyn, Arie & Kalwij, Adriaan & Zaidi, Asghar, 2004. "The myth of worksharing," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 293-313, June.
    4. Hebbink, G. E., 1993. "Production factor substitution and employment by age group," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 217-224, July.
    5. Adriaan Kalwij & Arie Kapteyn & Klaas de Vos, 2009. "Early retirement and employment of the young," Working Papers 200948, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    6. Emma Aguila & Orazio Attanasio & Costas Meghir, 2011. "Changes in Consumption at Retirement: Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1094-1099, August.
    7. Hongbin Li & Xinzheng Shi & Binzhen Wu, 2015. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 437-441, May.
    8. Tom Walker, 2007. "Why economists dislike a lump of labor," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(3), pages 279-291.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retirement age; Employment of older persons; Youth employment;

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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