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Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?

  • Bentour, El Mostafa

The Moroccan economy relies heavily on remittances from abroad to the extent they are far more significant sources of income than others such as foreign direct investments and tourism. To assess the reliability of this external financing source by testing the resilience vis-à-vis the hosting countries, we summarize, in this paper, the impact of the business cycles of major hosting European countries on Moroccan workers’ remittances using impulse response functions of a VAR modeling approach. Our findings include, first: the remittances to Morocco and major European countries’ GDP are positively correlated (i.e, are procyclical). Second, the recent global financial crisis and the following downturns in countries, such as Italy and Spain, significantly reduced remittances, while remittances from Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg do not seem to be extremely affected.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52290.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2013
Date of revision: 01 May 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52290
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  1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2011. "Remittances and Income Smoothing," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1107, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Patern�, 2008. "Output growth volatility and remittances," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 673, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercylical?," Working Paper Series rwp10-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274.
  5. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
  6. Hoover, Kevin D., 2003. "Some causal lessons from macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 121-125, January.
  7. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances; How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2010. "Another consequence of the economic crisis: a decrease in migrants' remittances," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 171-182.
  9. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2007. "Migration and rural development," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 4(1), pages 99-122.
  10. Pao-Li Chang & Shinichi Sakata, 2007. "Estimation of impulse response functions using long autoregression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 453-469, 07.
  11. Weshah Razzak & Elmostafa Bentour, 2012. "Do Developing Countries Benefit from Foreign Direct Investments?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_07, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  12. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Anjali Garg, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-96.
  13. John Anyanwu & Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor, 2010. "Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 22(1), pages 51-91.
  14. Razzak Weshah A. & Bentour El M., 2013. "Do Developing Countries Benefit from Foreign Direct Investments? An Analysis of Some Arab and Asian Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 357-388, December.
  15. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis, 2011. "Remittances of Immigrants in Greece," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 340-355, 05.
  16. Duo Qin, 2011. "Rise Of Var Modelling Approach," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 156-174, 02.
  17. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles with remittance fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 946, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  19. Serdar Sayan & B. Onur Tas & Yasemin Yalta, 2010. "Cyclical Behavior of Mexican Remittances over the Mexican and the US Business Cycles," Working Papers 1008, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
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