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Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies


  • Worrell, DeLisle
  • Lowe, Shane
  • Naitram, Simon


Insufficiency of foreign exchange may at times constrain the growth of small open economies which lack the domestic resources to produce import substitutes for their consumption, investment and input needs. This study explores the foreign exchange constraint in three small open Caribbean economies, using a structural model of the relationship of foreign exchange earnings and growth, and the economies’ openness to international markets. The model is used to evaluate the prospects of economic growth for these economies, based on the forecast availability of foreign exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Worrell, DeLisle & Lowe, Shane & Naitram, Simon, 2012. "Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies," MPRA Paper 52169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52169

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Spiegel, Shari & Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo & Nayyar, Deepak, 2006. "Stability with Growth: Macroeconomics, Liberalization and Development," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199288144.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    4. Lensink, Robert, 1995. "Foreign exchange constraints and developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 179-191, April.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDCs, 1964-1972," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 269-280, August.
    6. Angelos Antzoulatos & Simone Peart, 1998. "Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint," Research Paper 9810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Mario García-Molina & Jeanne Kelly Ruíz-Tavera, 2009. "Thirlwall's law and the two-gap model: toward a unified "dynamic gap" model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 269-290, December.
    8. Khemraj, Tarron & Langrin, R. Brian, 2009. "Dynamic interactions of bank assets in two foreign currency constrained economies," MPRA Paper 36620, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
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    More about this item


    Foreign currency constraint; exchange rate; small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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