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Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies

  • Worrell, DeLisle
  • Lowe, Shane
  • Naitram, Simon

Insufficiency of foreign exchange may at times constrain the growth of small open economies which lack the domestic resources to produce import substitutes for their consumption, investment and input needs. This study explores the foreign exchange constraint in three small open Caribbean economies, using a structural model of the relationship of foreign exchange earnings and growth, and the economies’ openness to international markets. The model is used to evaluate the prospects of economic growth for these economies, based on the forecast availability of foreign exchange.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52169.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52169
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  1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
  2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  3. Angelos Antzoulatos & Simone Peart, 1998. "Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint," Research Paper 9810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Lensink, Robert, 1995. "Foreign exchange constraints and developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 179-191, April.
  5. Khemraj, Tarron & Langrin, R. Brian, 2009. "Dynamic interactions of bank assets in two foreign currency constrained economies," MPRA Paper 36620, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDC's, 1964-1972," UCLA Economics Working Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Mario García-Molina & Jeanne Kelly Ruíz-Tavera, 2009. "Thirlwall's law and the two-gap model: toward a unified "dynamic gap" model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 269-290, December.
  8. Stiglitz, Joseph & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Spiegel, Shari & Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo & Nayyar, Deepak, 2006. "Stability with Growth: Macroeconomics, Liberalization and Development," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199288144.
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