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Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint

Author

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  • Angelos Antzoulatos
  • Simone Peart

Abstract

This paper develops a forward-looking model for import demand under a foreign exchange constraint, in which import growth is an increasing function of contemporaneous and expected future export growth. ; Unlike existing models which stress the role of foreign exchange reserves and contemporaneous export earnings for countries that have limited access to foreign borrowing, this one stresses the importance of the expected time path of future export earnings. The implications of the model are tested and confirmed with data from three East Asian developing countries for which relevant time series are available at quarterly intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelos Antzoulatos & Simone Peart, 1998. "Import demand under a foreign exchange constraint," Research Paper 9810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9810
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Adnan Mazarei, 1995. "Imports Under a Foreign Exchange Constraint; The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 95/97, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    5. Mohsin S. Khan, 1974. "Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries (Demande à l'importation et l'exportation dans les pays en développement) (La demanda de importación y de exportación en los países en desarrollo)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 678-693, November.
    6. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-321, May.
    7. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 249-273, May.
    8. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84, April.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    10. Faini, Riccardo & Pritchett, Lant & Clavijo, Fernando, 1988. "Import demand in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 122, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Worrell, DeLisle & Lowe, Shane & Naitram, Simon, 2012. "Growth Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Constrained Economies," MPRA Paper 52169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. SENE, Mr. SEYDINA OUSMANE & SAGHAIAN, Dr. SAYED H., 2014. "Liberalized World Trade and Food Import Under Foreign Exchange Constraints in the CFA's Franc Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162485, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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