IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijsepp/v35y2008i12p1005-1016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020

Author

Listed:
  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Seema Narayan
  • Biman Chand Prasad

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003‐2020. Design/methodology/approach - To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji. Findings - The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003‐2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003‐2020 period. Originality/value - Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad, 2008. "Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(12), pages 1005-1016, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:35:y:2008:i:12:p:1005-1016
    DOI: 10.1108/03068290810911516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/03068290810911516/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/03068290810911516/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/03068290810911516?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    6. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. World Bank, 2002. "World Development Indicators 2002," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13921, December.
    8. D. G. Richards, 2001. "Exports as a Determinant of Long-Run Growth in Paraguay, 1966-96," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 128-146.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    12. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2003. "Attendance and pricing at sporting events: empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1649-1657.
    14. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-321, May.
    15. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    16. Marian E. Bond, 1987. "An Econometric Study of Primary Commodity Exports from Developing Country Regions to the World," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 191-227, June.
    17. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, December.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Exports and imports in Zimbabwe: recent insights from artificial neural networks," MPRA Paper 96906, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    2. Utku UTKULU & Dilek SEYMEN & Aydin ARI, 2010. "Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence," EcoMod2004 330600144, EcoMod.
    3. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    4. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressive analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,31, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    9. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    10. Utku Utkulu & Dilek Seymen, 2004. "Trade and Competitiveness Between Turkey and the EU: Time Series Evidence," Working Papers 2004/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Mar 2004.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    12. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1998. "Interest Rates in Germany and the UK: Cointegration and Error Correction Models," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 27-43, January.
    13. Siong Hook Law, 2008. "Does a Country's Openness to Trade and Capital Accounts Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 161-177, June.
    14. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 96-115.
    15. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    16. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2016. "The Fisher effect in the presence of time-varying coefficients," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 495-511.
    17. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2003. "Attendance and pricing at sporting events: empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1649-1657.
    19. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    20. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:35:y:2008:i:12:p:1005-1016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.