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Evaluating Case-based Decision Theory: Predicting Empirical Patterns of Human Classification Learning (Extensions)

  • Pape, Andreas
  • Kurtz, Kenneth
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    We introduce a computer program which calculates an agent’s optimal behavior according to Case-based Decision Theory (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1995) and use it to test CBDT against a benchmark set of problems from the psychological literature on human classification learning (Shepard et al., 1961). This allows us to evaluate the efficacy of CBDT as an account of human decision-making on this set of problems. We find: (1) The choice behavior of this program (and therefore Case-based Decision Theory) correctly predicts the empirically observed relative difficulty of problems and speed of learning in human data. (2) ‘Similarity’ (how CBDT decision makers extrapolate from memory) is decreasing in vector distance, consistent with evidence in psychology (Shepard, 1987). (3) The best-fitting parameters suggest humans aspire to an 80 − 85% success rate, and humans may increase their aspiration level during the experiment. (4) Average similarity is rejected in favor of additive similarity.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45206/1/MPRA_paper_45206.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45206.

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    Date of creation: 18 Mar 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45206
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    1. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2008. "General uncertainty in portfolio selection: A case-based decision approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 718-734, September.
    2. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 2004. "A Dual Self Model of Impulse Control," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2049, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1996. "Case-Based Optimization," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Laibson, David, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-77, May.
    6. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1992. "Case-Based Decision Theory," Discussion Papers 994, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Billot, Antoine & Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 2008. "Axiomatization of an exponential similarity function," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 107-115, March.
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