Experimental Evidence on Valuation and Learning with Multiple Priors
Abstract Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit multiple priors. In an ambiguous scenario with two underlying states we measure a subject’s single prior, her other potential priors (multiple priors), her confidence in these priors valuation of an ambiguous asset with the same underlying states. We also investigate subjects' updating of (multiple) priors after receiving signals about the true states. We find that single priors are best understood as a confidence-weighted average of multiple priors. Single priors also predict the valuation of ambiguous assets best, while both the minimum and maximum of subjects' multiple priors add explanatory power. This provides some but no exclusive support for the maxmin (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989) and the alpha maxmin model (Ghirardato et al., 2004). With regard to updating of priors, we do not observe strong deviations from Bayesian learning, although subjects overadjust/underadjust their priors and their confidence in multiple priors after a contradictory/confirming signal. Subjects also react to neutral information with more confidence in their priors. This holds under ambiguity, but not in a comparison treatment under risk.
|Date of creation:||24 Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Trautmann, S.T. & van de Kuilen, G., 2011. "Belief Elicitation : A Horse Race among Truth Serums," Discussion Paper 2011-117, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001.
RCER Working Papers
485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- John Hey & Gianna Lotito & Anna Maffioletti, 2010.
"The descriptive and predictive adequacy of theories of decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 81-111, October.
- John D Hey & Gianna Lotito & Anna Maffioletti, 2008. "The Descriptive and Predictive Adequacy of Theories of Decision Making Under Uncertainty/Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 08/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Jianying Qiu & Eva-Maria Steiger, 2009.
"Understanding the Two Components of Risk Attitudes: An Experimental Analysis,"
Jena Economic Research Papers
2009-088, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
- Jianying Qiu & Eva-Maria Steiger, 2011. "Understanding the Two Components of Risk Attitudes: An Experimental Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 193-199, January.
- Jianying Qiu & Eva-Maria Steiger, 2010. "Understanding the Two Components of Risk Attitudes: An Experimental Analysis," Jena Economic Research Papers 2010-053, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
- Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
- Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, .
"Model Uncertainty and Liquidity,"
GSIA Working Papers
2001-E17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bryan R. Routledge, Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainity And Liquidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 368, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2000. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1617, Econometric Society.
- Massimo Marinacci, 2002. "Learning from ambiguous urns," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 143-151, January.
- Peter Bossaerts & Paolo Ghirardato & Serena Guarnaschelli & William R. Zame, 2006.
"Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
27, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2009.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2010.
"A simple model of trading and pricing risky assets under ambiguity: any lessons for policy-makers?,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 105-135.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2009. "A simple model of trading and pricing risky assets under ambiguity: any lessons for policy-makers?," Working Papers 2009-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2011. "Ambiguous Information, Portfolio Inertia, and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2213-2247, December.
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008.
"Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, 02.
- Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- repec:lmu:muenar:20868 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002.
"A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity,"
Economics Series Working Papers
113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Epstein Larry G & Noor Jawwad & Sandroni Alvaro, 2010. "Non-Bayesian Learning," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, January.
- Robert F. Nau, 2006. "Uncertainty Aversion with Second-Order Utilities and Probabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 136-145, January.
- Kyoungwon Seo, 2009. "Ambiguity and Second-Order Belief," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1575-1605, 09.
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.