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Non-Bayesian Learning

Listed author(s):
  • Epstein Larry G

    ()

    (Boston University)

  • Noor Jawwad

    ()

    (Boston University)

  • Sandroni Alvaro

    ()

    (University of Pennsylvania)

A series of experiments suggest that, compared to the Bayesian benchmark, people may either underreact or overreact to new information. We consider a setting where agents repeatedly process new data. Our main result shows a basic distinction between the long-run beliefs of agents who underreact to information and agents who overreact to information. Like Bayesian learners, non-Bayesian updaters who underreact to observations eventually forecast accurately. Hence, underreaction may be a transient phenomenon. Non-Bayesian updaters who overreact to observations eventually forecast accurately with positive probability but may also, with positive probability, converge to incorrect forecasts. Hence, overreaction may have long-run consequences.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-20

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejtec:v:10:y:2010:i:1:n:3
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  1. I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler., 2009. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Schmeidler, David, 2009. "Is It Always Rational To Satisfy Savage'S Axioms?," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 285-296, November.
  3. S. Nageeb Ali, 2011. "Learning Self-Control," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 857-893.
  4. Epstein, Larry G. & Noor, Jawwad & Sandroni, Alvaro, 2008. "Non-Bayesian updating: A theoretical framework," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), June.
  5. Larry G. Epstein, 2006. "An Axiomatic Model of Non-Bayesian Updating," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 413-436.
  6. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-1045, September.
  7. Larry G. Epstein & Jawwad Noor & Alvaro Sandroni, 2008. "Supplementary Appendix for ‘Non-Bayesian Updating: A Theoretical Framework’," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1997. "Repeated Large Games with Incomplete Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 116-134, January.
  9. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
  10. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-1261, December.
  11. Jordan, J. S., 1992. "The exponential convergence of Bayesian learning in normal form games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 202-217, April.
  12. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Subjective Equilibrium in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1231-1240, September.
  13. Sandroni, Alvaro, 1998. "Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Convergence to Nash Equilibrium: The Almost Absolute Continuity Hypothesis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 121-147, January.
  14. Venkatesh Bala & Sanjeev Goyal, 1998. "Learning from Neighbours," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 595-621.
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