Volatility and causality study of the daily returns on the Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2007-2011
International capital markets tend to be characterized by volatility, which is always a function of world economic and political environment and is frequently associated with contagion risk and increased cross-market linkages. This phenomenon affects both developed markets and emerging markets, and, being integrated in the context of international financial markets through the globalization process, Romanian capital market could not avoid external influencing factors amplificated by economic recession. We have analyzed the the influence of the international capital markets on the evolution of Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2007-2011 in two separate periods (during the 2007-2009 crisis and after the crisis), using correlation analysis and Granger causality tests on daily data. Our main interest was to see if and how the behavior of the Bucharest Stock Exchange was different during the crisis and after the crisis and how the volatility of the Romanian market changed in the post crisis period. Our results confirmed the high degree of interconnectivity between financial markets revealed by general theory, showing that there was a high degree of correlation between the Romanian stock market and international markets during the 2007-2009, but afterwards the intensity of this correlation slightly declined. Another conclusion was that during the whole 2007-2011 period there was a clear one-way causality induced from the international capital markets towards Bucharest Stock Exchange.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999.
"Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
- Hyuk Choe & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 1998. "Do Foreign Investors Destabilize Stock Markets? The Korean Experience in 1997," NBER Working Papers 6661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis, Bill B. & Leachman, Lori L., 1998. "Superexogeneity and the dynamic linkages among international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-492, June.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon Lai, 1999. "Macroeconomic determinants of long-term stock market comovements among major EMS countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 73-85.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001.
"Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods,"
71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philipp Hartman & Stefan Straetmans & Casper De Vries, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Proceedings 727, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
- Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008.
"Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets,"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERS-2008-071-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Markwat, Thijs & Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1996-2012, November.
- Iulian Panait, 2011. "Study of the Correlation between the Romanian Stock Market and S&P500 Index during 2007-2009," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(39), pages 233-255, March.
- Radu Lupu & Cristiana Tudor, 2008. "Direction of Change at the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 11(27), pages 165-185, January.
- Panait, Iulian & Lupu, Iulia, 2009.
"The Behavior Of The Bucharest Stock Exchange During The Current Financial Markets Crisis And Proposed Measures For Its Sustainable Development,"
Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series,
Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 1(1), pages 73-80.
- Panait, Iulian & Lupu, Iulia, 2009. "The behavior of the Bucharest Stock Exchange during the current financial markets crisis and proposed measures for its sustainable development," Papers 2009/101, Osterreichish-Rumanischer Akademischer Verein.
- Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
- Ratna Sahay & Gaston Gelos, 2000.
"Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,"
IMF Working Papers
00/71, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salim M. Darbar & Partha Deb, 1997.
"Co-Movements In International Equity Markets,"
Journal of Financial Research,
Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 305-322, 09.
- Maroney, Neal & Naka, Atsuyuki & Wansi, Theresia, 2004. "Changing Risk, Return, and Leverage: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 143-166, March.
- Manoj Jha, Stephen Lagakos Leonid Perlovsky & Covaci, Brindusa & Nikos Mastorakis, Azami Zaharim, 2010. "Recent Advances in Applied Mathematics," Papers 2010/300, Osterreichish-Rumanischer Akademischer Verein.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.