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Volatility Clustering, Leverage Effects, and Jump Dynamics in the US and Emerging Asian Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Daal, Elton

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Naka, Atsuyuki

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Yu, Jung-Suk

    (University of New Orleans)

Abstract

This paper proposes asymmetric GARCH-Jump models that synthesize autoregressive jump intensities and volatility feedback in the jump component. Our results indicate that these models provide a better fit for the dynamics of the equity returns in the US and emerging Asian markets, irrespective whether the volatility feedback is generated through a common GARCH multiplier or a separate measure of volatility in the jump intensity function. We also find that they can capture several distinguishing features of the return dynamics in emerging markets, such as, more volatility persistence, less leverage effects, fatter tails, and greater contribution and variability of the jump component.

Suggested Citation

  • Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2006. "Volatility Clustering, Leverage Effects, and Jump Dynamics in the US and Emerging Asian Equity Markets," Working Papers 2005-03, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2005-03
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    2. Liu, Yuna, 2016. "Essays on Stock Market Integration - On Stock Market Efficiency, Price Jumps and Stock Market Correlations," Umeå Economic Studies 926, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hui Qu & Tianyang Wang & Peng Shangguan & Mengying He, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of jumps in volatility forecasting: The new insights of high‐frequency jump intensity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 218-251, February.
    4. Jr-Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2021. "Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and their Impact on the Cost of no-Negative-Equity-Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 249-279, August.
    5. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The time-varying and asymmetric dependence between crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from the Mixture copula-based ARJI–GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2298-2309.
    6. Guo, Yanfeng & Wen, Xiaoqian & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei, 2016. "How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-33.
    7. Zouhaier Dhifaoui, 2022. "Determinism and Non-linear Behaviour of Log-return and Conditional Volatility: Empirical Analysis for 26 Stock Markets," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 69-94, June.
    8. Cordis, Adriana S. & Kirby, Chris, 2014. "Discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 160-178.
    9. Pan, Zhiyuan & Liu, Li, 2018. "Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 168-180.
    10. Sharon S. Yang & Jr-Wei Huang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2016. "Detecting and modelling the jump risk of CO 2 emission allowances and their impact on the valuation of option on futures contracts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 749-762, May.
    11. Huang, Jr-Wei & Yang, Sharon S. & Cheng, Hung-Wen, 2024. "Conditional volatility targeting strategy considering jump effects: Evidence from sustainable ESG equity index," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Chen, Chun-Da & Huang, Chien-Ming, 2019. "Analyzing the impacts of foreign exchange and oil price on biofuel commodity futures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 37-48.
    13. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Kenc, Turalay & Goodell, John W. & Gunay, Samet, 2025. "Enhancing banking systemic risk indicators by incorporating volatility clustering, variance risk premiums, and considering distance-to-capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    14. Zhao, Xiaojun & Zhang, Na & Zhang, Yali & Xu, Chao & Shang, Pengjian, 2024. "Equity markets volatility clustering: A multiscale analysis of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Azimi, Mohammad Naim, 2015. "Modelling the Clustering Volatility of India's Wholesales Price Index and the Factors Affecting it," MPRA Paper 70267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Liu, Yuna, 2016. "Stock exchange integration and price jump risks - The case of the OMX Nordic exchange mergers," Umeå Economic Studies 925, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    17. Jan Novotn?? & Jan Hanousek & Ev??en Ko??enda, 2013. "Price Jump Indicators: Stock Market Empirics During the Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1050, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    18. Lien, Donald & Lee, Geul & Yang, Li & Zhang, Yuyin, 2018. "Volatility spillovers among the U.S. and Asian stock markets: A comparison between the periods of Asian currency crisis and subprime credit crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 187-201.
    19. Henry, Ólan T., 2009. "Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-414, February.
    20. Pan, Qunxing & Mei, Xiaowen & Gao, Tianqing, 2022. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    21. Chen, Chun-Da & Su, Ching-Hui (Joan) & Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2022. "Understanding how ESG-focused airlines reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    22. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2017. "Volatility Clustering, Leverage Effects and Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Selected Stock Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-53, September.
    23. Ahmed, Mohamed Shaker & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Al-Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Kumar, Satish, 2024. "Cryptocurrency volatility: A review, synthesis, and research agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    24. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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