IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/40085.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign country rating, growth volatility and financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan, Gazi
  • Wu, Eliza

Abstract

Using monthly data from January 1996 up to May 2010 for a panel of 76 developed and emerging economies and adopting an instrumental variable estimation technique by correcting for both heterogeneity and endogeneity (correlation between the regressors and the idiosyncratic error) using the generalized two-stage least squares (G2SLS, EC2SLS) procedure method suggested by Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar (1987) and Baltagi (1995), this paper provides empirical evidence that an alternative channel via which growth volatility is reduced is through changes in sovereign country ratings. The paper also provides a new insight on the effect of global financial crisis (GFC) that it has contributed towards increased macroeconomic volatility by weakening this volatility reducing effect of sovereign country rating. Finally acknowledging the simultaneity between rating and volatility where output volatility may be a determining factor for sovereign country rating, the paper adopts a system approach and uses three stage least square (3SLS) estimator and finds that volatility reducing effect of country credit rating is robust. The channel via which sovereign rating changes affect growth volatility is through sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread and its volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Gazi & Wu, Eliza, 2012. "Sovereign country rating, growth volatility and financial crisis," MPRA Paper 40085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40085/1/MPRA_paper_40085.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Roberto Rigobón, 2008. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add Value?: Evidence from the Sovereign Rating Business Institutions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1634, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    7. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    8. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    9. Balestra, Pietro & Varadharajan-Krishnakumar, Jayalakshmi, 1987. "Full Information Estimations of a System of Simultaneous Equations with Error Component Structure," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 223-246, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth volatility; sovereign country rating; global financial crisis; monetary policy; G2SLS; EC2SLS; 3SLS;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.