Modelling Agricultural Production Risk and the Adaptation to Climate Change
A model that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on crop production. The biophysical model simulates future plant-management-climate relationships and the economic model simulates farmers’ adaptation actions to climate change using a nonlinear programming approach. Beyond the development of average yields, special attention is devoted to the impact of climate change on crop yield variability. This study analyzes corn and winter wheat production on the Swiss Plateau with respect to climate change scenarios that cover the period of 2030-2050. In our model, adaptation options such as changes in seeding dates, changes in production intensity and the adoption of irrigation farming are considered. Different scenarios of climate change, output prices and farmers’ risk aversion are applied in order to show the sensitivity of adaptation strategies and crop yields, respectively, on these factors. Our results show that adaptation actions, yields and yield variation highly depend on both climate change and output prices. The sensitivity of adaptation options and yields, respectively, to prices and risk aversion for winter wheat is much lower than for corn because of different growing periods. In general, our results show that both corn and winter wheat yields increase in the next decades. In contrast to other studies, we find the coefficient of variation of corn and winter wheat yields to decrease. We therefore conclude that simple adaptation measures are sufficient to take advantage of climate change in Swiss crop farming.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neil R. Miller, 2006. "Is Site-Specific Yield Response Consistent over Time? Does It Pay?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 471-483.
- Fuhrer, Jurg & Beniston, Martin & Calanca, Pierluigi & Torriani, Daniele Simone, 2007. "Alternative Hedging Strategies in Maize Production to Cope with Climate Variability and Change," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9275, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000.
"Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy,"
Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(1), December.
- Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
- Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan Marie, 2000.
"Econometric-Process Models For Integrated Assessment Of Agricultural Production Systems,"
Trade Research Center Research Discussion Papers
29234, Montana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics.
- John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
- Murat Isik & Madhu Khanna, 2003.
"Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 305-317.
- Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu, 2002. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences And Adoption Of Site-Specific Technologies," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Robert Finger & Werner Hediger, 2008.
"The Application of Robust Regression to a Production Function Comparison – the Example of Swiss Corn,"
IED Working paper
08-02, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
- Finger, Robert & Hediger, Werner, 2007. "The Application of Robust Regression to a Production Function Comparison – the Example of Swiss Corn," MPRA Paper 4740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & Barry K. Goodwin & Allen Featherstone, 2006. "Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 269-288, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3943. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.