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Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change

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  • Robert Finger
  • Stéphanie Schmid

Abstract

An approach that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on Swiss corn and winter wheat production. Adaptation options such as changes in sowing dates, changes in production intensity, and the adoption of irrigation farming are considered in the model. By carrying out sensitivity analysis with different scenarios, we find farmers’ adaptation actions and crop yeilds to be very sensitive to both climate change and output prices. Moreover, our model results show that simple adaptation measures are sufficient to generate higher and less variable crop yields in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Finger & Stéphanie Schmid, 2008. "Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 68(1), pages 25-41, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:25-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
    2. Finger, Robert & Hediger, Werner, 2007. "The Application of Robust Regression to a Production Function Comparison – the Example of Swiss Corn," MPRA Paper 4740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    4. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
    5. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & Barry K. Goodwin & Allen Featherstone, 2006. "Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 269-288, September.
    6. Fuhrer, Jurg & Beniston, Martin & Calanca, Pierluigi & Torriani, Daniele Simone, 2007. "Alternative Hedging Strategies in Maize Production to Cope with Climate Variability and Change," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9275, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Murat Isik & Madhu Khanna, 2003. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 305-317.
    8. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biophysical modeling; Climate change; Crop production functions; Crop yields; Robust estimation; Yield variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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