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Is Monetary Policy a Growth Stimulant in Nigeria? A Vector Autoregressive Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Adesoye, A. Bolaji
  • Maku, Olukayode E.
  • Atanda, Akinwande AbdulMaliq

Abstract

This paper critically examines the dynamic interaction between monetary policy tools in stimulating economic growth, as well as stabilizing the economy from external shocks in Nigeria. The paper considered key monetary time series variables and real growth of output in formulating Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models which showed interdependence interaction between the period of 1970 and 2007. The time series properties of the selected variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the results revealed that only growth of real output and broad money supply are stationary at levels, while saving, lending and exchange rates were found stationary at first difference. The long-run dynamic interaction was established through the Johansen’s Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue tests. The pair-wise Granger-Causality test conducted showed that the growth rate of real output is not a leading indicator for any monetary variables. Other innovation accounting tests were also carried out like impulse responses function to test for the response of growth in real output to innovation shock on monetary variables. Also, the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decompose the monetary shock on the growth rate of real output in Nigeria. Proper policy recommendations were proffered based on the results emanated from the econometric analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Adesoye, A. Bolaji & Maku, Olukayode E. & Atanda, Akinwande AbdulMaliq, 2012. "Is Monetary Policy a Growth Stimulant in Nigeria? A Vector Autoregressive Approach," MPRA Paper 35844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35844
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35844/1/MPRA_paper_35844.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    2. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    3. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G., 1995. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1626, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Monetary Instruments; Economic growth; VAR; Impulse shock response; Variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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