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Determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria: long-run analysis

Author

Listed:
  • MAKU, Olukayode E.
  • ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq

Abstract

This study examines critically the long-run macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria between 1984 and 2007. The properties of the time series variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and most of the incorporated variables in the study was found to have a unit root at level. The Augmented Engle-Granger Cointegration test result revealed that the stock market performance in Nigeria is mainly determined by macroeconomic forces in the long-run. However, the empirical analysis showed that the NSE all share index is more responsive to changes in exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply, and real output. While, the entire incorporated macroeconomic variables were found to have simultaneous and significant impact on the Nigerian capital market performance in the long-run. The study recommended that investors should pay close attention to exchange rate, inflation, money supply, and economic growth rather than treasury bill rate in the long-run in their investment decision.

Suggested Citation

  • MAKU, Olukayode E. & ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq, 2010. "Determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria: long-run analysis," MPRA Paper 35838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35838
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35838/1/MPRA_paper_35838.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    2. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables play any role in the stock market movement in Ghana?," MPRA Paper 9357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    3. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. repec:rss:jnljfe:v4i3p1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fakir Tajul Islam & Md. Shahnawaz Mostofa & Afrida Akhter Tithi, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in Bangladesh: A Case of Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 306-311, January.
    4. Charles O. Manasseh & Ambrose N. Omeje, 2016. "Application of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity Model on Inflation and Share Price Movement in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1491-1501.
    5. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:8-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:272-292 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Variables; Stock Market Performance; Long-run; Unit root and Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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