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Determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria: long-run analysis

Author

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  • MAKU, Olukayode E.
  • ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq

Abstract

This study examines critically the long-run macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria between 1984 and 2007. The properties of the time series variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and most of the incorporated variables in the study was found to have a unit root at level. The Augmented Engle-Granger Cointegration test result revealed that the stock market performance in Nigeria is mainly determined by macroeconomic forces in the long-run. However, the empirical analysis showed that the NSE all share index is more responsive to changes in exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply, and real output. While, the entire incorporated macroeconomic variables were found to have simultaneous and significant impact on the Nigerian capital market performance in the long-run. The study recommended that investors should pay close attention to exchange rate, inflation, money supply, and economic growth rather than treasury bill rate in the long-run in their investment decision.

Suggested Citation

  • MAKU, Olukayode E. & ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq, 2010. "Determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria: long-run analysis," MPRA Paper 35838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    3. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables play any role in the stock market movement in Ghana?," MPRA Paper 9301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. Sanya Ogunsakin & Isaac Tope Awe, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(4), pages 139-158, December.
    3. Pius V. C. Okoye & Jane F. N. Okoye & Raymond A. Ezejiofor, 2015. "The Impact of Capital Market Efficiency as a Panacea to the Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 122-134.
    4. Oseni, Isiaq & Akpa, Emeka & Aberu, Felix, 2018. "Does Stock Market impact on the Growth of Nigerian Economy using 3SLS Analysis?," MPRA Paper 92285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Massomeh Hajilee & Omar M. Al Nasser, 2017. "Financial Depth and Exchange Rate Volatility," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 62(1), pages 19-30, March.
    6. Mirza Muhammad Naseer & Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2021. "Firm, Industry and Macroeconomics Dynamics of Stock Returns: A Case of Pakistan Non-Financial Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Akan David Chucks & Ighosewe Enaibre Felix & Sunny Oteteya Temile, 2021. "Determinants of Equity Share Price Movement: Evidence From the Nigerian Banking Industry (2000 ¨C 2014)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 319-328, January.
    8. Adesoye, A. Bolaji & Atanda, Akinwande AbdulMaliq, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Share Pricing Business in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 35846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Fakir Tajul Islam & Md. Shahnawaz Mostofa & Afrida Akhter Tithi, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Market Performance in Bangladesh: A Case of Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 306-311, January.
    10. Charles O. Manasseh & Ambrose N. Omeje, 2016. "Application of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity Model on Inflation and Share Price Movement in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1491-1501.
    11. Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "The Determinants of Stock Returns in the Emerging Market of Kenya: An Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 8-21, September.
    12. Charles O. Manasseh & Timothy E. Mathew & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, 2017. "Investigating the Nexus between Institutional Quality and Stock Market Development in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 272-292, June.
    13. Mutiu A. Oyinlola & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Working Papers 059, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Variables; Stock Market Performance; Long-run; Unit root and Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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