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"Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1870-1990

Author

Listed:
  • J. Bradford De Long

    (U.C. Berkeley)

  • Marco Becht

    (European University Institute)

Abstract

This paper uses long-run real price and dividends series to investigate for the German stock market the questions asked of the U.S. market by Shiller (1989). It tries to determine in what periods and to what degree the Germanstock market has also possessed "excess volatility" over the past century. It finds no evidence or excess volatility in the pre-WWI German stock market. By contrast, there is some evidence of excess- volatiltiy in the post-WWII German stock market. The role played by the German Great Banks in the pre- WWI market might be the cause of the low comparative volatility of German stock indices before 1914.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1995. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1870-1990," Economic History 9509002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpeh:9509002
    Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat .pdf file; prepared on Macintosh; to print on Postscript (.pdf); pages: 27 ; figures: included
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barsky, Robert B. & Long, J. Bradford De, 1990. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 265-281, June.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long run stock market volatility Shiller test German finance capitalism variance bounds;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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