IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v9y2017i9p8-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Determinants of Stock Returns in the Emerging Market of Kenya: An Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Muinde Patrick Mumo

Abstract

This study examined the sources of risk factors that determine stock returns in the emerging market of Kenya. The specific objectives were to determine the validity of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and then empirically test for factors that are priced in stock returns in Kenya. The factors examined are the excess market premium and selected macroeconomic factors including inflation, exchange rates, money supply and short term interest rates. The study utilizes monthly time series data for the period April 1996: December 2016. The CAPM, a multifactor approach and Fama and MacBeth (1973) two-step procedure are used for data analysis. The study finds that CAPM cannot be rejected and that the market premium is the most important factor in explaining stock return variability in Kenya. Therefore, the study concludes that unlike the recent evidence on the collapse of CAPM in advanced markets, the model can still be validly used for the Kenyan market.

Suggested Citation

  • Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "The Determinants of Stock Returns in the Emerging Market of Kenya: An Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 8-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:8-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/68945/37844
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/68945
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Patrick Mumo Muinde & James Mwangi Karanja, 2017. "Kenya Commercial Banks are Star Performers: Myth or Truth? Exploratory Empirical Evidence from Nairobi Securities Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 340-350.
    3. Bartholdy, Jan & Peare, Paula, 2003. "Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81.
    4. T. Oyama, 1997. "Determinants of Stock Prices: The Case of Zimbabwe," IMF Working Papers 1997/117, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2010. "Size, value and liquidity: Do they really matter on an emerging stock market?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-070, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Joel H. Eita, 2011. "Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Namibia," Working Papers 209, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, August.
    8. Benaković Dubravka & Posedel Petra, 2010. "Do macroeconomic factors matter for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 1(1-2), pages 39-46, January.
    9. Sabine Artmann & Philipp Finter & Alexander Kempf, 2012. "Determinants of Expected Stock Returns: Large Sample Evidence from the German Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5-6), pages 758-784, June.
    10. Karam Pal & Ruhee Mittal, 2011. "Impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian capital markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 84-97, March.
    11. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    12. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. MAKU, Olukayode E. & ATANDA, Akinwande Abdulmaliq, 2010. "Determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria: long-run analysis," MPRA Paper 35838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    15. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2011. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    17. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    2. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    3. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2017. "Firm size, economic risks, and the cross-section of international stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 110-126.
    4. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2011. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Tyler Muir & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2011. "Broker-Dealer Leverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," 2011 Meeting Papers 1448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Naveen R.S. & N. Sivakumar, 2016. "Impact of Macro-Economic Factors on Sectoral Indices – Evidence from Indian Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 5(3), pages 174-182, August.
    7. Hammami Yacine & Jilani Faouzi, 2011. "Testing Factor Pricing Models in Tunisia: Macroeconomic Factors vs. Fundamental Factors," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Sainan Jin & Liangjun Su & Yonghui Zhang, 2015. "Nonparametric testing for anomaly effects in empirical asset pricing models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-36, February.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula, 2010. "Funding liquidity risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Staff Reports 464, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. Borys, Magdalena Morgese Borys, 2011. "Testing Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models in the Visegrad Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 118-139, June.
    12. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    14. Brian Payne & John Geppert, 2015. "Health care and the cross-section of US stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 153-170, January.
    15. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    16. Till, Gábor, 2021. "Az árfolyam-nyereség arány szerepe a német tőzsdei kereskedésben [The role of the P/E ratio in trading on the German stock exchange]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 815-846.
    17. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    18. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    19. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    20. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; market premium; macroeconomic variables; Nairobi securities exchange and evidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:8-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.