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Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth in Pakistan: time series empirical investigation

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  • Syed tehseen, jawaid
  • Faisal sultan, qadri
  • Nasir, ali

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed tehseen, jawaid & Faisal sultan, qadri & Nasir, ali, 2011. "Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth in Pakistan: time series empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 32680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Shahid Ali & Somia Irum & Asghar Ali, 2008. "Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 791-799.
    3. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Arif, Imtiaz & Naeemullah, Syed Muhammad, 2010. "Comparative analysis of monetary and fiscal Policy: a case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 30850, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2010.
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:188:p:387-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2019. "Effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Ghana," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 16-23, May.
    2. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    3. Mohammed Aljebrin, 2018. "Non-Oil Trade Openness and Financial Development Impacts on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 251-260.
    4. Nursini Nursini, 2017. "Effect of Fiscal Policy and Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Indonesia: 1990-2015," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 358-364.
    5. Md Mahbub Alam & Md Nazmus Sadekin & Rabiul Islam & Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq, 2022. "Effect of Deficit Financing on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration and VECM Approach," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 174-188, June.
    6. Hongzhong Fan & Md Ismail Hossain, 2018. "Technological Innovation, Trade Openness, CO2 Emission and Economic Growth: Comparative Analysis between China and India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 240-257.
    7. Khalid Zaman & Bashir Khilji, 2014. "A note on pro-poor social expenditures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2121-2154, July.
    8. Md. Qamruzzaman & Wei Jianguo & Sharmin Jahan & Zhu Yingjun, 2021. "Financial innovation, human capital development, and economic growth of selected South Asian countries: An application of ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4032-4053, July.
    9. Abu Bakarr Tarawalie & Noah Kargbo, 2020. "Efficacy of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Sierra Leone: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 217-224.
    10. Kunle Bankole Osinusi & Nurudeen Abiodun Lawal & Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu, 2022. "Trade Balance, Exchange Rate and Money Supply in Nigeria: Growth Implications and Lesson for African Countries," Management & Economics Research Journal, Faculty of Economics, Commercial and Management Sciences, Ziane Achour University of Djelfa, vol. 4(2), pages 25-44, September.
    11. Moniba Sana & Waqar Muhammad Khan & Shahid Akbar, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Import, Export, and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Investigation," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(1), pages 874-884.
    12. Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Chan Bibi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth under the Perspective of Monetary Policy in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 164-176, September.
    13. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    14. Ebenezer G Olamide & Andrew Maredza, 2021. "The Short and Long Run Dynamics of Monetary Policy, Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in the CEMAC Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 78-89, January.
    15. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Saraireh & Hassan Alamro, 2018. "Interaction Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Fluctuation: A Case Study for Jordan," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 107-111.
    16. Mariam Abbas Soharwardi & Javeria Sarwar & Muhammad Imran Khan & Mariam Miraj, 2022. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dilemma in Pakistan to Support Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 233-243.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary; Fiscal; Trade; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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