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Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth in Pakistan: time series empirical investigation

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  • Syed tehseen, jawaid
  • Faisal sultan, qadri
  • Nasir, ali

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed tehseen, jawaid & Faisal sultan, qadri & Nasir, ali, 2011. "Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth in Pakistan: time series empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 32680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32680
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32680/1/MPRA_paper_32680.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Arif, Imtiaz & Naeemullah, Syed Muhammad, 2010. "Comparative analysis of monetary and fiscal Policy: a case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 30850, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2010.
    3. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Can monetary policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Working Papers 21122, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    2. Nursini Nursini, 2017. "Effect of Fiscal Policy and Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Indonesia: 1990-2015," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 358-364.
    3. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Khalid Zaman & Bashir Khilji, 2014. "A note on pro-poor social expenditures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2121-2154, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary; Fiscal; Trade; Economic Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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