IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/fbbsrw/v11y2022i2p174-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of Deficit Financing on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration and VECM Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Md Mahbub Alam
  • Md Nazmus Sadekin
  • Rabiul Islam
  • Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq

Abstract

Bangladesh has been encountering a budget deficit since 1972 because of a decrease in the source of income. This paper aims to examine the effect of budget deficit financing on economic growth in Bangladesh throughout 1981–2018. Using secondary data, the paper uses the cointegration test, vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and Granger causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test outcomes find that the study variables are cointegrated and subsequently have a long-run nexus among the variables. The study finds that in the long run, government domestic debt (GDD), government external debt (GEXD) and money supply (MS) affect positively economic growth (RGDP). The outcomes of the VECM approach express that in the short run, GDD, external debt and MS negatively affect economic growth. Also, short-run causality runs from the GDD, GEXD and MS to economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows unidirectional causal nexus running from GDD to RGDP, RGDP to external debt and GEXD to MS, and bidirectional causal nexus between MS and GDD in Bangladesh. The study suggests the governments should enhance moderate levels of domestic and external borrowing and uses it in productive and efficient ways to accelerate economic growth in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Mahbub Alam & Md Nazmus Sadekin & Rabiul Islam & Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq, 2022. "Effect of Deficit Financing on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration and VECM Approach," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 174-188, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fbbsrw:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:174-188
    DOI: 10.1177/23197145211057339
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23197145211057339
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/23197145211057339?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Musa Mayanja Lwanga & Joseph Mawejje, 2014. "Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(6), pages 1-7.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq & Rabaka Akter & Tanmay Biswas, 2020. "Impact of Financial Crisis on Credit Risk: Pre- and Post-financial Crises 
in an Emerging Economy," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(2), pages 118-132, June.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Vuyyuri, S. & Seshaiah, S. V., 2004. "Budget Deficits and Other Macroeconomic Variables in India," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    6. Kharusi, Sami Al & Ada, Mbah Stella, 2018. "External Debt and Economic Growth : The Case of Emerging Economy," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(1), pages 1141-1157.
    7. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1994. "The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-191, October.
    8. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2017. "Fiscal Deficit and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Odongo George Otieno & Scholastica Odhiambo & Benjamin Ombok, 2019. "Effect Of Internal Budget Deficit Financing On Economic Growth In Kenya," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 4(6), pages 64-71, June.
    11. Salih BARIŞIK & Abdullah BARIS, 2017. "Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 111-130, Summer.
    12. Abdullah, S. M. & Azad, Abul Kalam & Siddiqua, Salina, 2018. "Budget deficit and growth: in search of ceiling for Bangladesh," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(4), pages 743-765, August.
    13. Eze & Onyekachi Ricahrd & Festus O. Ogiji, 2016. "Impact of Deficit Financing on Economic Stability in Nigeria: Analysis of Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7.
    14. Mohammad Morshedur RAHMAN & Mohammad Abul BASHAR & Suman DEY, 2012. "External Debt And Gross Domestic Product In Bangladesh: A Co-Integration Analysis," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(4), pages 28-36, December.
    15. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Faisal Sultan Qadri & Nasir Ali, 2011. "Monetary-Fiscal-Trade Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Time Series Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(3), pages 133-138, September.
    16. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Uganda: an empirical investigation," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 199-212.
    17. Deepti Ahuja & Deepak Pandit, 2020. "Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Developing Countries," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(3), pages 228-236, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    2. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    3. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    4. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    5. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    6. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
    7. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
    8. Stephen McKnight & Marco Robles Sánchez, 2014. "Is a monetary union feasible for Latin America? Evidence from real effective exchange rates and interest rate pass-through levels," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 225-262.
    9. Mohcine Bakhat & Klaas WŸrzburg, 2013. "Co-integration of Oil and Commodity Prices: A Comprehensive ApproachAbstract," Working Papers fa05-2013, Economics for Energy.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
    11. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2019. "Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey's Economy," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(1), pages 117-130, March.
    12. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    13. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    15. La, Le & Mei, Bin, 2015. "Portfolio diversification through timber real estate investment trusts: A cointegration analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 269-274.
    16. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    17. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    18. Frank Asche, 2001. "Testing the effect of an anti-dumping duty: The US salmon market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 343-355.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    20. Maryam Almasifard & Sasan Torabzadeh Khorasani, 2017. "Relationship Between Domestic Production in Agricultural and Industrial Sectors and Purchasing Power by Controlling for International Trade Variables (Iran)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 244-253.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:fbbsrw:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:174-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.