Trade integration,restructuring and global imbalances --A tale of two countries
China is widely seen as one of the sources of global macroeconomic imbalances. Its persistent current account surplus and capital exports to the United States are even cited as one of the causes of the global financial crisis. The most common explanation traces China's current account surplus to a mismatch between saving and investment due to inefficiently low domestic demand. We challenge this explanation. Our argument rests on an analogy that we construct between two countries generally thought to be very different: Russia and China. Russia, a raw materials exporting country, has been running current account surpluses similar to China's in relation to GDP. As for most raw materials exporting countries this is considered normal, reflecting efficient reinvestment of wealth from natural resources in financial assets. We show that a similar efficiency argument can be constructed for China, although the nature of wealth that is reinvested in financial assets is different in the two countries. Our analysis implies that China's current account surpluses can be expected to disappear over the long horizon – although the time when this will happen may still be very far away. Moreover, an appreciation of the Chinese currency may not have the desired effect of mitigating the country's current account surplus as a weakening in competitiveness is counterbalanced by a strengthening of investment motives.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2011.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations,"
OECD Development Centre Working Papers
296, OECD Publishing.
- Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494, July.
- Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-016, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations," Discussion Papers 2011/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Petsas, Iordanis, 2009.
"Sustained Comparative Advantage and Semi-Endogenous Growth,"
14297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Iordanis Petsas, 2010. "Sustained Comparative Advantage and Semi-Endogenous Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 34-47, 02.
- Bowden Roger J. & Huang Hui, 2009. "Infrastructure, Commodity Spectra, and Trade Transitions in Economic Development," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-33, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.