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A Note on institutional hierarchy and volatility in financial markets

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  • Alfarano, Simone
  • Milakovic, Mishael
  • Raddant, Matthias

Abstract

From a statistical point of view, the prevalence of non-Gaussian distributions in nancial returns and their volatilities shows that the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) often does not apply in nancial markets. In this paper we take the position that the independence assumption of the CLT is violated by herding tendencies among market participants, and investigate whether a generic probabilistic herding model can reproduce non-Gaussian statistics in systems with a large number of agents. It is well-known that the presence of a herding mechanism in the model is not sucient for non-Gaussian properties, which crucially depend on the details of the communication network among agents. The main contribution of this paper is to show that certain hierarchical networks, which portray the institutional structure of fund investment, warrant non-Gaussian properties for any system size and even lead to an increase in system-wide volatility. Viewed from this perspective, the mere existence of nancial institutions with socially interacting managers contributes considerably to nancial volatility.

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  • Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael & Raddant, Matthias, 2011. "A Note on institutional hierarchy and volatility in financial markets," MPRA Paper 30902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30902
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    Cited by:

    1. Adri'an Carro & Ra'ul Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2015. "Markets, herding and response to external information," Papers 1506.03708, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    2. Gonzalo Bohorquez & John Cartlidge, 2024. "Simulation of Social Media-Driven Bubble Formation in Financial Markets using an Agent-Based Model with Hierarchical Influence Network," Papers 2409.00742, arXiv.org.
    3. Kononovicius, A. & Gontis, V., 2014. "Control of the socio-economic systems using herding interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 80-84.
    4. Matthias Raddant & Mishael Milaković & Laura Birg, 2017. "Persistence in corporate networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 249-276, July.
    5. David Vidal-Tomás & Simone Alfarano, 2020. "An agent-based early warning indicator for financial market instability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 49-87, January.
    6. Adrián Carro & Raúl Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2015. "Markets, Herding and Response to External Information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Vygintas Gontis, 2014. "Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets," Papers 1409.8024, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    8. Michael Hatcher & Tim Hellmann, 2024. "Communication, networks and asset price dynamics: a survey," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(1), pages 1-58, January.
    9. Junhuan Zhang & Peter McBurney & Katarzyna Musial, 2018. "Convergence of trading strategies in continuous double auction markets with boundedly-rational networked traders," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 301-352, January.
    10. Adri'an Carro & Ra'ul Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2016. "The noisy voter model on complex networks," Papers 1602.06935, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    11. Adri'an Carro & Ra'ul Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2013. "Signal amplification in an agent-based herding model," Papers 1302.6477, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Zhang, Junhuan, 2018. "Influence of individual rationality on continuous double auction markets with networked traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 353-392.
    13. Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2017. "Empirical Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-15, November.
    14. Song-min Yu & Lei Zhu, 2017. "Impact of Firms’ Observation Network on the Carbon Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Herding; financial volatility; networks; core-perifery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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