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Signal amplification in an agent-based herding model

  • Adri\'an Carro
  • Ra\'ul Toral
  • Maxi San Miguel
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    A growing part of the behavioral finance literature has addressed some of the stylized facts of financial time series as macroscopic patterns emerging from herding interactions among groups of agents with heterogeneous trading strategies and a limited rationality. We extend a stochastic herding formalism introduced for the modeling of decision making among financial agents, in order to take also into account an external influence. In particular, we study the amplification of an external signal imposed upon the agents by a mechanism of resonance. This signal can be interpreted as an advertising or a public perception in favor or against one of the two possible trading behaviors, thus periodically breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. The conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the periodicity of the signal are studied, finding a maximum in the response of the system for a given range of values of both the noise and the frequency of the input signal.

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    Paper provided by in its series Papers with number 1302.6477.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2013
    Date of revision: Sep 2015
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1302.6477
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    1. D. COLANDER & al., 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    2. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2005. "Time-variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Economics Working Papers 2005,14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    4. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael & Raddant, Matthias, 2011. "A Note on institutional hierarchy and volatility in financial markets," MPRA Paper 30902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2009. "Network structure and N-dependence in agent-based herding models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 78-92, January.
    6. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
    7. Kononovicius, A. & Gontis, V., 2012. "Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1309-1314.
    8. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    9. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
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