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Network hierarchy in Kirman's ant model: fund investment can create systemic risk

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  • Alfarano, Simone
  • Milaković, Mishael
  • Raddant, Matthias

Abstract

Kirman's ant model has been used to characterize the expectation formation of financial investors who are prone to herding. The model's original version suffers from the problem of N-dependence: its ability to replicate the statistical features of financial returns vanishes once the system size N is increased. In a generalized version of the ant model, the network structure connecting agents turns out to determine whether or not the model is N-dependent. We investigate a class of hierarchical networks in the generalized model that presumably reflect the institutional heterogeneity of financial markets. These network structures do overcome the problem of N-dependence, but at the same time they also increase system-wide volatility. Thus network structure becomes an auxiliary source of volatility in addition to the behavioral heterogeneity of interacting agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael & Raddant, Matthias, 2009. "Network hierarchy in Kirman's ant model: fund investment can create systemic risk," Economics Working Papers 2009-09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:200909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Albrecht Irle & Jonas Kauschke & Thomas Lux & Mishael Milaković, 2011. "Switching Rates And The Asymptotic Behavior Of Herding Models," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 359-376.
    2. Chen, Shu-heng & Chang, Chia-ling, 2012. "Interactions in the New Keynesian DSGE models: The Boltzmann-Gibbs machine and social networks approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-32.
    3. Chang, Chia-ling & Chen, Shu-heng, 2011. "Interactions in DSGE models: The Boltzmann-Gibbs machine and social networks approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    herding; financial markets; networks; N-dependence; systemic risk;
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