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Une approche Macroprudentielle du risque systémique en zone CEMAC
[A Macro-prudential approach of systemic risk in CEMAC zone]

Author

Listed:
  • Nguenang, Christian
  • Kamgna, Sévérin yves
  • Tinang, Nzeusseu Jules

Abstract

In this study, we identifie a small number of indicators of macro-prudential supervision important to monitoring of the banking’s system. We use the theory of Markov stochastic processes to measure the systemic risk of CEMAC by calculating the degree of fragility of system and we determine the variables that influent on it degradation by using a logit model on panel data. Following this analysis, it appears that the claims on the private sector in a period, foreign direct investment (FDI), private sector credit and exports increase the risk of failure of the banking system, while the equity, The rate of inflation, exchange rates, while rising, downward influence the likelihood of degradation of the banking system in CEMAC

Suggested Citation

  • Nguenang, Christian & Kamgna, Sévérin yves & Tinang, Nzeusseu Jules, 2010. "Une approche Macroprudentielle du risque systémique en zone CEMAC [A Macro-prudential approach of systemic risk in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 25632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25632
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kamgna, Severin Yves & Tinang, Nzesseu Jules & Tsombou, Kinfak Christian, 2009. "Macro-Prudential Monitoring Indicators for CEMAC Banking System," MPRA Paper 17095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2006/149, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2008. "Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 875, European Central Bank.
    4. Mr. Martin Cihak, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2007/059, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking System; Macro-Prudential Indicators; Degradation; Systemic risk; Markov stochastic processes; Monetary Policy CEMAC; BEAC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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