A macro stress testing model with feedback effects
Stress testing is a tool to analyse the resilience of a financial system under extreme shocks. In contrast to single-bank stress testing models, macro stress testing models attempt to analyse risk for the system as a whole by taking into account feedback – i.e. the transmission of risks – within the system or between the financial system and the real economy. This paper develops a simple model of macro stress testing, incorporating two types of feedback: one between credit and interest rate risks and another between the banking system and the real economy. The model is tested using hypothetical banking sector data. The results from the exercise highlight the importance of incorporating feedback effects for the assessment of total risks to the system, and of recognising more than one type of feedback effect in a model for a robust assessment of risks to financial stability.
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- Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006.
"A model to analyse financial fragility,"
Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, 01.
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- Martin Cihak & Jaroslav Hermanek, 2005. "Stress Testing the Czech Banking System: Where Are We? Where Are We Going?," Research and Policy Notes 2005/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, January.
- Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe18, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A time series analysis of financial fragility in the UK banking system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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