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The Efficiency of Emerging Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from the South Asian Region

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  • Cooray, Arusha
  • Wickremasinghe, Guneratne

Abstract

This paper examines weak form efficiency in the stock markets of India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh; and the linkages between these four markets. The Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF-1979), the Phillip-Perron (PP-1988), the Dicky-Fuller Generalized Least Square (DF-GLS 1996) and Elliot-Rothenber-Stock (ERS – 1996) tests are used to examine stock market efficiency. Weak form efficiency is supported by the classical unit root tests, however, it is not strongly supported for Bangladesh under the DF-GLS and ERS tests. The cointegration and Granger causality tests indicate a high degree of interdependence between the South Asian stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooray, Arusha & Wickremasinghe, Guneratne, 2005. "The Efficiency of Emerging Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from the South Asian Region," MPRA Paper 23626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    2. Halime Temel Nalın & Sevinç Güler, 2015. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis: An Application in the BRIC Countries and Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(55), pages 129-148, March.
    3. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:239-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Abdul Haque & Hung-Chun Liu & Fakhar-Un-Nisa, 2011. "Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of Pakistani Stock Market (2000–2010)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 153-162.
    5. Muhammad Kashif, 2015. "Comparison of Equity Markets of SAARC Nations with the Equity Markets European Union Nations," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 9(1), pages 23-31, Spring.
    6. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 951-962.
    7. Chaido Dritsaki, 2011. "The Random Walk Hypothesis and Correlation in the Visegrad Countries Emerging Stock Markets," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(40), pages 25-56, June.
    8. Naz, Salma & Razaque, Seema & Khuwaja, Hyder Ali & Ahmed, Niaz, 2014. "Validity of EMH; A Case Study of KSE-100 Index," Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business, Sukkur IBA University, vol. 1(1), pages 112-126, October.
    9. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Azmat, Saad & Fang, Victor & Edirisuriya, Piyadasa, 2014. "Unchecked manipulations, price–volume relationship and market efficiency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 51-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Asia; India; Sri Lanka; Pakistan; Bangladesh; unit root tests; stock markets; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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