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Can Financial Openness Help Avoid Currency Crises?

  • Garita, Gus
  • Zhou, Chen

By introducing the concept of conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF), and by proposing a new measure for the systemic impact of currency crises, we provide new insights into the different sources of currency crises. We conclude that financial openness helps to diminish the probability of a currency crisis even after controlling for the onset of a banking crisis, that systemic currency crises mainly exist regionally, and that monetary policy geared towards price stability reduces the probability of a currency crisis.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23166/1/MPRA_paper_23166.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23166.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision: 07 Jun 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23166
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  1. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
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  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  12. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  13. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Paolo Pesenti & Cedric Tille, 2000. "The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
  18. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
  19. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1999. "Financial Sector Inefficiencies and Coordinate Failures: Implications for Crisis Management," NBER Working Papers 7446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
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