أثیر سرمایه اجتماعی بر مطالبات بانکی از بخش خصوصی و دولتی با تأکید بر کارآیی مخارج دول[The Impact of Social Capital on Bank Claims on the Private and Public Sectors with an Emphasis on Government Expenditure Efficiency]

This study examines the impact of social capital—through its effect on government expenditure efficiency—alongside the exchange rate, stock market index, and oil revenues on banking system claims on the public and private sectors. The analysis covers the period 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q2 using quarterly data and the Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) approach. The results indicate that social capital, by enhancing the efficiency of government expenditures, exerts a negative and significant effect on bank claims on both the public and private sectors. The exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on bank claims on the public sector, while it shows a positive and significant effect on claims on the private sector. The stock market index has no significant impact on banking claims on either sector, which may stem from the relatively limited role of the stock market in financing businesses in Iran and its insufficient depth. Moreover, economic growth has a negative and significant effect on banking claims on both sectors, likely through improving business conditions and increasing individuals’ purchasing power, which in turn strengthens their ability to repay loans. Therefore, by stabilizing the economy (limiting large fluctuations in the exchange rate, stock index, etc.) and improving social capital, one can expect enhanced government expenditure efficiency and a subsequent decline in banking system claims on both the public and private sectors