IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/114491.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Anand, Vaibhav

Abstract

Scientific and technological advances are resulting in improved forecasts of risk, but do better forecasts result in better risk management? I investigate to what extent the improvements in lead time of winter weather advisories affect the frequency of motor vehicle crashes. I construct a data set of winter weather advisories, weather monitor readings, and vehicle crashes at the county-date level in 11 states in the US during 2006-2018. Using within county variation in lead time, I show that receiving winter advisories earlier reduces crash risk significantly. I also examine two potential mechanisms that might lead to these effects. First, using the mobile phone location data from SafeGraph, I show that longer lead times result in fewer visits by people to places outside their homes. Second, using snow plow truck location data, I show that road crews perform a greater level of winter maintenance activities when advisories arrive with longer lead time. Overall, this study provides evidence that improvements in forecast lead times result in meaningful economic benefits to society, and these benefits come from both the individual and institutional response to longer lead times.

Suggested Citation

  • Anand, Vaibhav, 2022. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," MPRA Paper 114491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114491
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114491/1/MPRA_paper_114491.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115685/1/MPRA_paper_115685.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saurabh Bhargava & Vikram S. Pathania, 2013. "Driving under the (Cellular) Influence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 92-125, August.
    2. Justin Gallagher & Paul J. Fisher, 2020. "Criminal Deterrence When There Are Offsetting Risks: Traffic Cameras, Vehicular Accidents, and Public Safety," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 202-237, August.
    3. Peter Bauer & Alan Thorpe & Gilbert Brunet, 2015. "The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction," Nature, Nature, vol. 525(7567), pages 47-55, September.
    4. Austin C. Smith, 2016. "Spring Forward at Your Own Risk: Daylight Saving Time and Fatal Vehicle Crashes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 65-91, April.
    5. Matthew Neidell, 2009. "Information, Avoidance Behavior, and Health: The Effect of Ozone on Asthma Hospitalizations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    6. Lu Li & Richard Peter, 2021. "Should we do more when we know less? The effect of technology risk on optimal effort," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 695-725, September.
    7. Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen, 2014. "Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Police Enforcement and Traffic Fatalities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 231-257, May.
    8. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2009. "The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 164-182, January.
    9. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher R. Udry, 2019. "Assessing the Benefits of Long-Run Weather Forecasting for the Rural Poor: Farmer Investments and Worker Migration in a Dynamic Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 25894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Benjamin Hansen, 2015. "Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1581-1617, April.
    11. Mara Faccio & John J. McConnell, 2020. "Death by Pokémon GO: The Economic and Human Cost of Using Apps While Driving," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 815-849, September.
    12. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams, 2013. "Texting Bans and Fatal Accidents on Roadways: Do They Work? Or Do Drivers Just React to Announcements of Bans?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 179-199, April.
    14. Janet Currie & Matthew Neidell, 2005. "Air Pollution and Infant Health: What Can We Learn from California's Recent Experience?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 1003-1030.
    15. Ferris, Jeffrey S. & Newburn, David A., 2017. "Wireless alerts for extreme weather and the impact on hazard mitigating behavior," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 239-255.
    16. Cherry, Todd L. & James, Alexander G. & Murphy, James, 2021. "The impact of public health messaging and personal experience on the acceptance of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 415-430.
    17. Antony Millner & Daniel Heyen, 2021. "Prediction: The Long and the Short of It," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 374-398, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Linsenmeier, Manuel & Shrader, Jeffrey G., 2023. "Global inequalities in weather forecasts," SocArXiv 7e2jf, Center for Open Science.
    2. Renato Molina & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "The Social Value of Predicting Hurricanes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10049, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anand, Vaibhav, 2001. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," SocArXiv hdpga, Center for Open Science.
    2. Brands, Devi & Klingen, Joris & Ostermeijer, Francis, 2022. "Hands on the wheel, eyes on the phone: The effect of smartphone usage fees on road safety," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Fry, Jane M., 2023. "Do increased speeding fines save lives?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    4. Rinaldo Brau & Marco Nieddu & S. Balia, 2021. "Depowering Risk: Vehicle Power Restriction and Teen Driver Accidents in Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 202101, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    5. Jason M. Lindo & Peter Siminski & Oleg Yerokhin, 2016. "Breaking The Link Between Legal Access To Alcohol And Motor Vehicle Accidents: Evidence From New South Wales," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 908-928, July.
    6. Hansen, Benjamin & Waddell, Glen R., 2018. "Legal access to alcohol and criminality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-289.
    7. Duncan, Kevin Davey, 2020. "Three papers in regional dynamics and panel econometrics," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009129, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Cheng Keat Tang, 2017. "Do Speed Cameras Save Lives?," SERC Discussion Papers 0221, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Benjamin Hansen, 2015. "Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1581-1617, April.
    10. Abay, Kibrom A. & Kahsay, Goytom Abraha, 2018. "Long-term effects of alternative deterrence policies: Panel data evidence from traffic punishments in Denmark," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Hersh, Jonathan & Lang, Bree J. & Lang, Matthew, 2022. "Car accidents, smartphone adoption and 3G coverage," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 278-293.
    12. Devi Brands & Joris Klingen & Francis Ostermeijer, 2020. "Hands on the Wheel, Eyes on the Phone: the Effect of Smart Phone Usage on Road Safety," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-024/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Aney, Madhav S. & Ho, Christine, 2019. "Deadlier road accidents? Traffic safety regulations and heterogeneous motorists’ behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 155-171.
    14. Erik Nesson & Vinish Shrestha, 2021. "The effects of false identification laws on underage alcohol‐related traffic fatalities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2264-2283, September.
    15. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2012. "The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3652-3673, December.
    16. Hill, Elaine L. & Ma, Lala, 2022. "Drinking water, fracking, and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Erik Nesson & Vinish Shrestha, 2016. "The Effects of False Identification Laws with a Scanner Provision on Underage Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 2016-17, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    18. Luechinger, Simon, 2014. "Air pollution and infant mortality: A natural experiment from power plant desulfurization," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 219-231.
    19. Alison L. Sexton Ward & Timothy K. M. Beatty, 2016. "Who Responds to Air Quality Alerts?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(2), pages 487-511, October.
    20. Nicholas J. Sanders, 2012. "What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Weaker: Prenatal Pollution Exposure and Educational Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(3), pages 826-850.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weather forecast; risk mitigation; auto crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.