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Broadband delivered entertainment services: forecasting Australian subscription intentions

  • Madden, Gary G
  • Simpson, Michael
  • Savage, Scott

This study estimates a nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of broadband delivered entertainment service subscription that allows for the impact of an installation fee and rental price, service attributes and household demographic variables on subscription. The model is estimated on stated-preference data obtained from an Australia-wide survey of capital cities and provincial centres. Nested multinomial logit model estimates are used to provide forecasts that suggest 65 per cent of separate residences passed are likely to subscribe at 2000. This percentage translates into 1237 744 subscriber.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10915/1/MPRA_paper_10915.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10915.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Record 243.78(2002): pp. 422-432
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10915
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
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Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

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  1. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
  2. Hensher, David A, 1986. "Sequential and Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Nested Logit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 657-67, November.
  3. Harvey S. Rosen & Kenneth A. Small, 1979. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 0319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jara-Díaz, Sergio R. & Videla, Jorge, 1989. "Detection of income effect in mode choice: Theory and application," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 393-400, December.
  5. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
  6. Fry, T.R.L. & Harris, M.N., 1994. "Testing for Independence or Irrelevent Alternatives: Some Empirical Results," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Madden, Gary, 1995. "Experimentation in Economics: An Overview of the Stated-Preference Experimental Design Method," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(64), pages 120-35, June.
  8. Lee, Paul S. N., 1997. "The development of cable television in Australia: A tripartite model of interactions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 59-70, February.
  9. Wiktor Adamowicz & Peter Boxall & Michael Williams & Jordan Louviere, 1998. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments and Contingent Valuation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 64-75.
  10. Bhat, Chandra R., 1995. "A heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity travel mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 471-483, December.
  11. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
  12. Hensher, David & Louviere, Jordan & Swait, Joffre, 1998. "Combining sources of preference data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 197-221, November.
  13. Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Boxall, Peter C. & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1995. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments versus Contingent Valuation," Staff Paper Series 24126, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  14. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
  15. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304.
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