Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand
The goals in this paper are to contribute an empirical study of tourism demand dynamics, and to point out areas where the scrutiny of relationships between theoretical and empirical considerations are likely to produce new insights in this area of research. A flexible general form of a Dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (DAIDS) is derived to analyse the UK tourism demand for its geographically proximate neighbours Portugal, Spain and France, in the period 1969-1997. Nested within the general dynamic structure are Deaton and Muellbauer’s static AIDS model itself, the partial adjustment model and the auto-regressive distributed lag model, which are tested against the general dynamic alternative. The empirical results obtained show that DAIDS is a data coherent and theoretically consistent model, providing evidence of the robustness of this methodology to conduct tourism demand analysis in a temporal context. Moreover, the dynamic model offers statistically strong evidence on the inadequacy of the orthodox static AIDS and the other restricted models to reconcile consistently data and theory within their formulations. Estimates for tourism price and expenditure elasticities are obtained, permitting a comparative analysis of the relative magnitudes and statistical relevance of long and short run sensitivity of the UK tourism demand to changes in its determinants.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200 PORTO|
Web page: http://www.fep.up.pt/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gordon Anderson & Richard Blundell, 1983. "Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System: An Application to Consumers' Expenditure in Canada," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 397-410.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1996.
"The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 573-600, November.
- Maria De Mello & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 2002. "A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 509-521.
- Maria De Mello & Kevin Nell, 2005. "The forecasting ability of a cointegrated VAR system of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 277-308, 09.
- Anderson, Gordon & Blundell, Richard, 1984. "Consumer Non-Durables in the U.K. A Dynamic Demand System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 35-44, Supplemen.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
- Panayiota Lyssiotou, 2000. "Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 421-436.
- Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:0501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Bonanca)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.