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A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s

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  • Gavin Cameron
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

The Welsh economy has undergone rapid structural change in recent years. This paper uses data from the New Earnings Survey to examine how earnings in Wales changed relative to those of Great Britain between 1975 and 1994. There are five main findings. First, earnings of workers in Wales have declined relative to those in Great Britain. Second, the shift away from full-time men has been an important factor in the fall in average relative earnings. Third, the decline in the relative earnings of full-time men is mostly explained by falling relative earnings in construction, distribution, and transport, as well as the failure of workers in banking and financial services in Wales to keep up with their counterparts in Great Britain. Fourth, the shift in full-time employment to health, education and other services has tended to support relative earnings. Fifth, the decline in full-time men`s earnings seem to be an equilibrium phenomenon that will not naturally reverse itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s," Economics Series Working Papers 61, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:61
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    File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper061.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, January.
    2. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 1998. "The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 420-446, September.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    4. Nicole M. Fortin & Michael Baker, 1999. "Women's Wages in Women's Work: A U.S./Canada Comparison of the Roles of Unions and "Public Goods" Sector Jobs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 198-203, May.
    5. Robert Rowthorn, 2000. "The Political Economy of Full Employment in Modern Britain," Working Papers wp164, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    6. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 412-429, June.
    7. repec:sae:niesru:v:142:y::i:1:p:88-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. John Lovering, 1999. "Theory Led by Policy: The Inadequacies of the 'New Regionalism' (Illustrated from the Case of Wales)," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 379-395, June.
    9. Blackaby, D H & Manning, D N, 1992. "Regional Earnings and Unemployment--A Simultaneous Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 481-501, November.
    10. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    11. David Wilkinson, 1992. "Has the North—South divide come to an end?—Prospects for regional unemployment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 142(1), pages 88-98, November.
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    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1002-:d:101050 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings; unemployment; Wales; structural change; New Earnings Survey;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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