IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/regstd/v36y2002i1p1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s

Author

Listed:
  • Gavin Cameron
  • John Muellbauer
  • Jonathan Snicker

Abstract

The Welsh economy has undergone rapid structural change in recent years. This paper uses data from the New Earnings Survey to examine how earnings in Wales changed relative to those of Great Britain between 1975 and 1994. There are five main findings. First, earnings of workers in Wales have declined relative to those in Great Britain. Second, the shift away from full-time men has been an important factor in the fall in average relative earnings. Third, the decline in the relative earnings of full-time men is mostly explained by falling relative earnings in construction, distribution and transport, as well as the failure of workers in banking and financial services in Wales to keep up with their counterparts in Great Britain. Fourth, the shift in full-time employment to health, education and other services has tended to support relative earnings. Fifth, the decline in full-time men's earnings relative to Great Britain seems to have been caused by long-run factors that are unlikely to naturally reverse themselves. Dans les annees recentes, l'economie galloise a subi un changement structurel rapide. A partir des donnees provenant de la New Earnings Survey (une enquete aupres des salaires), cet article cherche a examiner l'evolution des salaires aux pays de Galles par rapport a l'evolution des salaires que touchent les travailleurs britanniques entre 1977 et 1994. On en a tire les cinq conclusions suivantes. En premier, les salaires des travailleurs gallois ont diminue par rapport a ceux des travailleurs britanniques. En deuxieme, la baisse des salaires relatifs moyens s'explique essentiellement par le declin de l'emploi masculin a plein temps. En troisieme, la baisse des salaires relatifs de l'emploi masculin s'explique en large partie par la diminution des salaires relatifs de ceux qui travaillent dans la construction, la distribution et le transport, aussi bien que par le fait que les salaires de ceux qui travaillent dans le secteur financier aux pays de Galles n'ont pas pris le meme chemin que ceux de leurs homologues britanniques. En quatrieme, le passage de l'emploi aux services de sante, d'education et a d'autres services a eu tendance a soutenir les salaires relatifs. En cinquieme, il semble que, par rapport a la Grande-Bretagne, la baisse des salaires de l'emploi masculin a plein temps remonte aux variables a long terme et il est peu probable qu'il y ait un renversement de tendance naturel. Die walisische Wirtschaft ist in den letzten Jahren raschem strukturellen Umstellungen unterworfen gewesen. Dieser Aufsatz benutzt Daten der Neuen Einkommensubersicht (New Earnings Survey) zur Untersuchung von Einkommensanderungen in Wales im Verhaltnis zu denen in Grossbritannien uberhaupt im Zeitraum 1975-1994. Es ergaben sich funf Hauptbefunde: Erstens sind Einkommen in Wales im Verhaltnis zu denen Grossbritanniens gesunken. Zweitens stellte sich die Ablosung der Vollzeitbeschaftigung von Mannern als ein bedeutender Faktor im Absinken relativer Durchschnittseinkommen heraus. Drittens erklart sich der Ruckgang in relativen Einkommen vollzeitig erwerbstatiger Manner grosstenteils durch nachlassenden relativen Verdienst im Bau-, Vertriebs- und Verkehrswesen, wie auch durch den vergeblichen Versuch der in Banken und anderen Finanzinstituten in Wales Beschaftigten, es ihren Kollegen in Grossbritannien gleich zu tun. Viertens neigte die Verlagerung der Erwerbstatigkeit auf die Gebiete Gesundheitswesen, Schulerziehung und andere Dienstleistungen dazu, relative Einkornmen zu fordern. Funftens scheint das Absinken der Einkommen vollzeitig beschaftigter Manner im Verhaltnis zu Grossbritannien durch seit langem bestehende Faktoren verursacht worden zu sein, von denen kaum anzunehmen ist, dass sie auf naturliche Art rucklaufig werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Jonathan Snicker, 2002. "A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 1-11.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:36:y:2002:i:1:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400120099816
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00343400120099816
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00343400120099816?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 1998. "The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 420-446, September.
    2. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    3. Nicole M. Fortin & Michael Baker, 1999. "Women's Wages in Women's Work: A U.S./Canada Comparison of the Roles of Unions and "Public Goods" Sector Jobs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 198-203, May.
    4. Blackaby, D H & Murphy, P D, 1995. "Earnings, Unemployment and Britain's North-South Divide: Real or Imaginary?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 487-512, November.
    5. John Lovering, 1999. "Theory Led by Policy: The Inadequacies of the ‘New Regionalism’ (Illustrated from the Case of Wales)," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 379-395, June.
    6. repec:bla:scotjp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:420-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Blackaby, D H & Manning, D N, 1992. "Regional Earnings and Unemployment--A Simultaneous Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 481-501, November.
    8. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    9. Blackaby, David H, et al, 1997. "The Distribution of Male and Female Earnings 1973-91: Evidence for Britain," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 256-272, April.
    10. David Wilkinson, 1992. "Has the North—South divide come to an end?—Prospects for regional unemployment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 142(1), pages 88-98, November.
    11. repec:bla:scandj:v:92:y:1990:i:2:p:215-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Robert Rowthorn, 2000. "The Political Economy of Full Employment in Modern Britain," Working Papers wp164, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    13. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(464), pages 412-429, June.
    14. repec:sae:niesru:v:142:y::i:1:p:88-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James FOREMAN-PECK & Laurian LUNGU, 2010. "A Supply-Side Regional Econometric Model of Wales," EcoMod2004 330600053, EcoMod.
    2. Han-Shen Chen & Wan-Yu Liu & Chi-Ming Hsieh, 2017. "Integrating Ecosystem Services and Eco-Security to Assess Sustainable Development in Liuqiu Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wouter Vermeulen & Jos Van Ommeren, 2009. "Compensation of Regional Unemployment in Housing Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 71-88, February.
    2. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2005. "Booms, Busts and Ripples in British Regional Housing Markets," Macroeconomics 0512003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cameron, G. & Muellbauer, J., 1999. "Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing: Evidence from a Panel of British Regions," Economics Papers 1999-w7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    6. Wouter Vermeulen & J. van Ommeren, 2006. "Compensation of regional unemployment in housing markets," CPB Discussion Paper 57, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Bernard, Andrew & Redding, Stephen & Simpson, Helen & Schott, Peter, 2002. "Factor Price Equalization in the UK?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3523, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    9. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony & Cameron, Gavin, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Estimating the willingness to move within Great Britain: Importance and implications," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1203, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Wouter Vermeulen & Jos Van Ommeren, 2009. "Compensation of Regional Unemployment in Housing Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 71-88, February.
    13. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Blackaby, David H. & Drinkwater, Stephen, 2004. "Migration and Labour Market Differences: The Case of Wales," IZA Discussion Papers 1275, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    16. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    17. Wouter Vermeulen & Jos Van Ommeren, 2005. "Are workers compensated by cheaper housing in regions where unemployment is high? Theory and evidence from a housing demand survey," ERSA conference papers ersa05p204, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Spatial housing economics: A survey," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(10), pages 1987-2003, August.
    19. Paul Gregg & Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 2004. "Mobility and Joblessness," NBER Chapters, in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980–2000, pages 371-410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kevin Morgan, 2001. "The New Territorial Politics: Rivalry and Justice in Post-devolution Britain," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 343-348.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings; Unemployment; Wales; Structural Change; New Earnings Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:36:y:2002:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRES20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.