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Feed biomass production may not be sufficient to support emerging livestock demand: Model projections to 2050 in Southern Africa

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  • Enahoro, Dolapo
  • Sircely, Jason
  • Boone, Randall B.
  • Oloo, Stephen
  • Komarek, Adam M.
  • Bahta, Sirak
  • Herrero, Mario
  • Rich, Karl M.

Abstract

The demand for livestock-derived foods has steadily grown over the past decades and rising incomes and human populations are expected to see demand further increase. It is unclear if current livestock feed resources are adequately prepared to meet future demand especially given the looming challenges of climate change. Many feeds such as grasses, crop by-products, and other biomass may not be widely grown commercially or sold in formal markets but are critical sources of livestock feed in many low-resource settings in which ruminant livestock production is important. The availability of these feed types can determine the extent to which the livestock sector can expand to meet growing, and sometimes critical, demand for animal-source foods. In this paper, we compare country-level projections of livestock demand from a global economic model to simulated data on feed biomass production. Our comparisons account separately for beef, lamb, and dairy demand. The data allow us to assess the future sufficiency of key sources of feed biomass, and hence aspects of the expansion capacity of livestock production in selected countries in Southern Africa. Our simulation results project that given the interacting effects of projected climate change and changes in income and population in the region, there will not be enough feed biomass produced domestically to meet growing demand for livestock products. For three types of feed biomass (feed crops including grains, grasses, and crop by-products) for which future livestock feed sufficiency was examined, our results showed feed sufficiency declines for all three feed types in Malawi and Mozambique, for two out of three in South Africa and for one of three in Zambia, under intermediate and extreme scenarios of climate change in 2050. Our results suggest an urgent need to improve feed biomass productivity to support future supply of animal protein in the study countries.

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  • Enahoro, Dolapo & Sircely, Jason & Boone, Randall B. & Oloo, Stephen & Komarek, Adam M. & Bahta, Sirak & Herrero, Mario & Rich, Karl M., 2021. "Feed biomass production may not be sufficient to support emerging livestock demand: Model projections to 2050 in Southern Africa," SocArXiv qmdrt, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:qmdrt
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/qmdrt
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek Headey & Kalle Hirvonen & John Hoddinott, 2018. "Animal Sourced Foods and Child Stunting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1302-1319.
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    4. Thornton, P.K. & van de Steeg, J. & Notenbaert, A. & Herrero, M., 2009. "The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 113-127, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mensah, Charles & Enahoro, Dolapo, 2022. "Modeling poultry and maize sector interactions in Southern Africa under a changing climate," SocArXiv ehd3j, Center for Open Science.
    2. Ramanauske, Neringa & Balezentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2023. "Biomass use and its implications for bioeconomy development: A resource efficiency perspective for the European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

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