IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/w6ebr.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current and future demographics of the veteran population, 2014–2024

Author

Listed:
  • Amaral, Ernesto F. L.

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Pollard, Michael S.
  • Mendelsohn, Joshua
  • Cefalu, Matthew

Abstract

We project the population of United States veterans between 2014 and 2024 using a cohort component population projection method that provides estimates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era and geographic location. We also analyze distance of the projected veteran population to medical and health centers. Our research strategy integrates several methodological procedures, which can be applied to other subgroups of the American population in order to estimate future demographic trends at the local level. Baseline data for national projections came from the 2000 Census, which was the last census to collect information about veterans. We factored in estimates of mortality, adjusted for demographic characteristics, and added data from the U.S. Department of Defense on veterans entering the population after 2000. We estimated migration flows of veterans within the country using gravity models. Supplementary data came from American Community Surveys and accounted for a variety of factors, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era, population size of sending and receiving areas, and distance between areas. We project that the population of U.S. veterans will decrease by 19 percent over the next 10 years: from 21.6 million in 2014 to 17.5 million in 2024. The population will have a slightly higher proportion of older veterans. There will be modest changes in the demographic mix by sex and race/ethnicity. Between 2014 and 2024, the proportion of female veterans will increase 3 percentage points, from 8 to 11 percent. The share of non-Hispanic white males will decrease from 80 to 76 percent over the same period. The service era composition will change in the period. Veterans from the Vietnam conflict will decrease from 31 to 29 percent, while those from the Gulf War and Post-9/11 conflict will increase from 27 to 42 percent between 2014 and 2024. We estimate that, geographically, the veteran population will become more concentrated in urban areas, and the relative proportion of their population in the Ohio River Valley region will diminish.

Suggested Citation

  • Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Pollard, Michael S. & Mendelsohn, Joshua & Cefalu, Matthew, 2018. "Current and future demographics of the veteran population, 2014–2024," OSF Preprints w6ebr, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w6ebr
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/w6ebr
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5ad9603db855b8000ffaff8f/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/w6ebr?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Raymer & Andrei Rogers, 2007. "Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 199-223, May.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    4. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    5. Jacques Poot & Brigitte Waldorf & Leo van Wissen (ed.), 2009. "Migration and Human Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12599, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J. Hale-Gallardo & Consuelo M. Kreider & Gail Castañeda & Kelsea LeBeau & Deepthi S. Varma & Cheri Knecht & Diane Cowper Ripley & Huanguang Jia, 2022. "Meeting the Needs of Rural Veterans: A Qualitative Evaluation of Whole Health Coaches’ Expanded Services and Support during COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Eduardo Luiz Goncalves Rios-Neto & Joseph E. Potter, 2015. "The Influence of Internal Migration on Male Earnings in Brazil, 1970-2000," Working Papers WR-1090, RAND Corporation.
    2. repec:osf:osfxxx:w6ebr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G & Potter, Joseph E, 2016. "The influence of internal migration on male earnings in Brazil, 1970–2000," OSF Preprints y8v2d, Center for Open Science.
    4. repec:osf:osfxxx:y8v2d_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rosmaiza A. Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2019. "A Gravity Model Estimation of the Bi-Directional Relationship between International Trade and Migration," Working Papers in Economics 19/02, University of Waikato.
    6. Mueller, Marc, 2010. "Conceptual Challenges for the Integration of Agricultural Sector and General Equilibrium Models: the databases of CAPRI and GTAP," Conference papers 331937, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Andrea Bernini & Laurent Bossavie & Daniel Garrote-Sánchez & Mattia Makovec, 2024. "Corruption as a push and pull factor of migration flows: evidence from European countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 263-281, February.
    8. Hernandez, Diego & Rudolph, Alexandra, 2011. "Modern Day Slavery: What Drives Human Trafficking in Europe?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 83, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    9. Giltman, M. & Pit, V. & Batyreva, M. & Sumik, E., 2020. "Which cities do we like to live in? Empirical analysis of employees' attitude to cities," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 111-130.
    10. Luca Buzzanca & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini, 2023. "Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 10(3), pages 254-273, March.
    11. Hernandez, Diego & Rudolph, Alexandra, 2015. "Modern day slavery: What drives human trafficking in Europe?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 118-139.
    12. Nicolas Péridy, 2005. "Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 491-518, April.
    13. Raphael Auer & Philip Saur�, 2012. "CHF strength and Swiss export performance -- evidence and outlook from a disaggregate analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 521-531, April.
    14. Lisandra Flach & Fabian Gräf, 2020. "The impact of trade agreements on world export prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 168-208, February.
    15. Yann Duval & Chorthip Utoktham, 2011. "Trade Facilitation in Asia and the Pacific: Which Policies and Measures affect Trade Costs the Most?," Working Paper Series 111, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    16. Mariya Aleksynska & Giovanni Peri, 2014. "Isolating the Network Effect of Immigrants on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 434-455, March.
    17. Jean Balié & Davide Del Prete & Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation?," Working Papers 4/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    18. Sunder Ramaswamy & Abishek Choutagunta & Santhosh K. Sahu, 2016. "Evaluating Asian FTAs: What do Gravity Equation Models Tell Us?," Working Papers id:11377, eSocialSciences.
    19. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    20. Dolan, Paul & Metcalf, Robert, 2008. "Comparing willingness-to-pay and subjective well-being in the context of non-market goods," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28504, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Mkandawire, Petros, 2023. "Do environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements affect climate protection performance?," 2023 Seventh AAAE/60th AEASA Conference, September 18-21, 2023, Durban, South Africa 365880, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    22. Rinaldo Brau & Anna Maria Pinna, 2013. "Movements of People for Movements of Goods?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1318-1332, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w6ebr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.