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Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Buzzanca

    (Gran Sasso Science Institute, Italy)

  • Caterina Conigliani

    (Roma Tre University, Italy)

  • Valeria Costantini

    (Roma Tre University, Italy)

Abstract

The literature identifies three main drivers for forced migration, namely conflict, food insecurity, and natural and man-made disasters, although finds no empirical consensus on the association between climate change and migrations. Aim of this study is to identify the different push and pull factors of forced migration in different regions of the world by means of gravity-type models. Particular attention is devoted to determining the effects of climatic factors and conflicts, while controlling for the economic, political and social relationship between the origin and the destination countries. We model both total forced migration, that includes refugees, asylum seekers, internal displacements, and returnees, and cross-border forced migrations. Finally, we consider a full panel data analysis and estimate both fixed effects and random effects model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Buzzanca & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini, 2023. "Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 10(3), pages 254-273, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:10:y:2023:i:3:p:254-273
    DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2023.10.3(17)
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    4. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    5. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    6. Freeman, Rebecca & Lewis, John, 2021. "Gravity model estimates of the spatial determinants of trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs); conflicts; natural disasters; climate change; gravity models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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