IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ssi/jouesi/v10y2023i3p254-273.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Buzzanca

    (Gran Sasso Science Institute, Italy)

  • Caterina Conigliani

    (Roma Tre University, Italy)

  • Valeria Costantini

    (Roma Tre University, Italy)

Abstract

The literature identifies three main drivers for forced migration, namely conflict, food insecurity, and natural and man-made disasters, although finds no empirical consensus on the association between climate change and migrations. Aim of this study is to identify the different push and pull factors of forced migration in different regions of the world by means of gravity-type models. Particular attention is devoted to determining the effects of climatic factors and conflicts, while controlling for the economic, political and social relationship between the origin and the destination countries. We model both total forced migration, that includes refugees, asylum seekers, internal displacements, and returnees, and cross-border forced migrations. Finally, we consider a full panel data analysis and estimate both fixed effects and random effects model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Buzzanca & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini, 2023. "Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 10(3), pages 254-273, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:10:y:2023:i:3:p:254-273
    DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2023.10.3(17)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jssidoi.org/jesi/uploads/articles/39/Buzzanca_Conflicts_and_natural_disasters_as_drivers_of_forced_migrations_in_a_gravitytype_approach.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://jssidoi.org/jesi/article/1065
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.9770/jesi.2023.10.3(17)?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    3. Freeman, Rebecca & Lewis, John, 2021. "Gravity model estimates of the spatial determinants of trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    6. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    2. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    3. repec:mse:cesdoc:13045 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mueller, Marc, 2010. "Conceptual Challenges for the Integration of Agricultural Sector and General Equilibrium Models: the databases of CAPRI and GTAP," Conference papers 331937, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," Working Papers 2012-12, FEDEA.
    6. Anna-Theresa Renner & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2020. "Modeling inter-regional patient mobility: Does distance go far enough?," Economics working papers 2020-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Bergh, Andreas & Mirkina, Irina & Nilsson, Therese, 2015. "Pushed by Poverty or by Institutions? Determinants of Global Migration Flows," Working Paper Series 1077, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Nina Neubecker & Marcel Smolka & Anne Steinbacher, 2017. "Networks And Selection In International Migration To Spain," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1265-1286, July.
    9. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
    10. Pinior, Beate & Conraths, Franz J. & Petersen, Brigitte & Selhorst, Thomas, 2015. "Decision support for risks managers in the case of deliberate food contamination: The dairy industry as an example," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 41-48.
    11. Rongji Huang & Tengfei Nie & Yangguang Zhu & Shaofu Du, 2020. "Forecasting Trade Potential Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries: Under the Background of Belt and Road Initiative," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1233-1247, April.
    12. Pinior, Beate & Conraths, Franz J. & Petersen, Brigitte & Selhorst, Thomas, 2015. "Reprint of “Decision support for risks managers in the case of deliberate food contamination: The dairy industry as an example”," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 114-122.
    13. Laila Touhami Morghem & Khawlah Ali Abdalla Spetan, 2020. "Determinants of International Migration: An Applied Study on Selected Arab Countries (1995-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 6-19.
    14. Karina Acosta & Hengyu Gu, 2022. "Locked up? The development and internal migration nexus in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19931, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    15. Neubecker, Nina & Smolka, Marcel, 2013. "Co-national and cross-national pulls in international migration to Spain," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-61.
    16. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2022. "Gravity, counterparties, and foreign investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 132-152.
    17. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.
    18. Schaak, Henning, 2015. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on International Agricultural Trade: A Gravity Application on the Dairy Product Trade and the ASEAN-China-FTA," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 211619, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    19. Liang Chen & Garrett Johnson & Yao Luo, 2015. "Great and Small Walls of China: Distance & Chinese E-Commerce," Working Papers 15-14, NET Institute.
    20. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    21. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs); conflicts; natural disasters; climate change; gravity models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:10:y:2023:i:3:p:254-273. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuela Tvaronaviciene (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.