IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/pyjbk.html

Municipal Brazilian electoral results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Lima, Everton E. C. Dr.

    (Unicamp)

Abstract

Using municipal death registered Ministry of Health data and first-round electoral results of Presidential elections in 2018 and 2022, we evaluate the hypothesis if there is an association between excess mortality and political partisanship in Brazil. Given the political stance adopted by President Bolsonaro, favouring scientific discredit and neglecting the severity of the pandemic, it is expected that there is possibly a relationship between excessive mortality rates during COVID-19 health crisis and the number of municipal votes for Bolsonaro. Our results showed that in both elections the first-round percentage of municipal votes for Bolsonaro was positively associated with the peaks of excess deaths across Brazilian municipalities in 2020 and 2021. Another interesting result, even with the excess of mortality during the pandemic, Bolsonaro's political loyalty did not reduce during the second electoral period of 2022, and the positive association between excess deaths and votes still remained. A possible explanation to this fact is linked to the actual Brazilian political scenario, which is experiencing an environment of tribal politics and affective polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Lima, Everton E. C. Dr., 2022. "Municipal Brazilian electoral results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic," OSF Preprints pyjbk, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pyjbk
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pyjbk
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/634c21b50db48e30bee10ddf/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/pyjbk?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob Wallace & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Jason L. Schwartz, 2022. "Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:osf:osfxxx:pyjbk_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ntentas, Raphael, 2021. "Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    4. Adrian Nicholas Gachet, 2022. "Help Me Help You? Populism and Distributive Politics in Ecuador," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2205, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Vigvári, Gábor, 2022. "Transzformáció és a populizmus a visegrádi országokban [Transformation and populism in the V4 countries]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 339-366.
    6. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2026. "Multidimensional Signaling and the Rise of Cultural Politics," Working Papers 2026-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2026. "How Globalization Unravels: A Ricardian Model of Endogenous Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 34672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Garoupa, Nuno & Spruk, Rok, 2025. "Populist constitutional backsliding and judicial independence: Evidence from Türkiye," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Massimo Bordignon & Federico Franzoni & Matteo Gamalerio, 2023. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def124, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Monica Martinez-Bravo & Carlos Sanz, 2022. "The Management of the Pandemic and its Effects on Trust and Accountability," Working Papers wp2022_2207, CEMFI.
    13. Bekkouche, Yasmine & Cagé, Julia & Dewitte, Edgard, 2022. "The heterogeneous price of a vote: Evidence from multiparty systems, 1993–2017," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    14. Raphael Ntentas, 2021. "Quantifying Political Populism and Examining the Link with Economic Insecurity: evidence from Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 165, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    15. Yasmine Elkhateeb & Riccardo Turati & Jérôme Valette, 2025. "Immigration, Identity Choices, and Cultural Diversity," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 25120, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    16. Gabriele Gratton & Barton E Lee, 2024. "Liberty, Security, and Accountability: The Rise and Fall of Illiberal Democracies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 340-371.
    17. Federico Boffa & Vincenzo Mollisi & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2023. "Do incompetent politicians breed populist voters? Evidence from Italian municipalities," Economics Working Papers 1861, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    18. repec:irs:cepswp:2024-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Fanghella, Valeria & Schleich, Joachim & Sebi, Carine, 2026. "Populism and support of onshore wind energy: Explaining different perspectives from the left and right," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    20. Gabriel Loumeau, 2022. "Land Consolidation Reforms: A Natural Experiment on the Economic and Political Effects of Agricultural Mechanization," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/376, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    21. Kinzang Gyeltshen & Pema Tenzin & Kinley Yangzom, 2025. "Demographic Disparities in Bhutan’s Integrity Landscape: Unpacking Age-Driven Corruption Experiences," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(6), pages 574-586, June.
    22. Mehrzad B. Baktash & Uwe Jirjahn, 2023. "Are Managers More Machiavellian Than Other Employees?," Research Papers in Economics 2023-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pyjbk. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.