A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts’ Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a ‘Truth Commission’
I discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible . TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a ‘residual estimation,’ consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by ‘other perpetrators,’ calculated by Ball et al.
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- Gianmarco Leon, 2010. "Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long Term Effects of Political Violence in PerÃº," Working Papers id:2505, eSocialSciences.
- Grimard, F. & Laszlo, S., 2014.
"Long-Term Effects of Civil Conflict on Women’s Health Outcomes in Peru,"
Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-155.
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- Jose Galdo, 2013.
"The Long-Run Labor-Market Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from the Shining Path in Peru,"
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 789-823.
- Galdo, Jose C., 2010. "The Long-Run Labor-Market Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from the Shining Path in Peru," IZA Discussion Papers 5028, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Marco Castillo & Ragan Petrie, 2007. "Discrimination in the Warplace: Evidence from a Civil War in Peru," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2007-10, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
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