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A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts’ Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a ‘Truth Commission’

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  • Silvio Rendon

    (Department of Economics, Stony Brook University)

Abstract

I discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible . TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a ‘residual estimation,’ consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by ‘other perpetrators,’ calculated by Ball et al.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Rendon, 2012. "A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts’ Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a ‘Truth Commission’," Department of Economics Working Papers 12-03, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:12-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Grimard, F. & Laszlo, S., 2014. "Long-Term Effects of Civil Conflict on Women’s Health Outcomes in Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-155.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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