A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts’ Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a ‘Truth Commission’
I discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible . TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a ‘residual estimation,’ consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by ‘other perpetrators,’ calculated by Ball et al.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384|
Web page: http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
- Galdo, Jose C., 2010.
"The Long-Run Labor-Market Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from the Shining Path in Peru,"
IZA Discussion Papers
5028, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Jose Galdo, 2013. "The Long-Run Labor-Market Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from the Shining Path in Peru," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 789 - 823.
- Gianmarco Leon, 2010. "Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long Term Effects of Political Violence in PerÃº," Working Papers id:2505, eSocialSciences.
- Marco Castillo & Ragan Petrie, 2007. "Discrimination in the Warplace: Evidence from a Civil War in Peru," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2007-10, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Grimard, F. & Laszlo, S., 2014.
"Long-Term Effects of Civil Conflict on Women’s Health Outcomes in Peru,"
Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-155.
- Sonia Laszlo & Franque Grimard, 2010. "Long Term Effects Of Civil Conflict On Women'S Health Outcomes In Peru," Departmental Working Papers 2010-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:12-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.