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Calibration, Expected Utility and Local Optimality

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  • Dean P. Foster
  • Rakesh V. Vohra

Abstract

We propose a framework for reconciling frequentist and subjectivist views of probability. In an environment with repeated trails we show that beliefs about the possible states of nature can be represented by probabilities. Second, these probabilities will correspond to long run frequencies. In particular they will be naively calibrated. Third, the actions chosen in each trial will be the ones that maximize expected utility on that trial. The expectation is with respect to the probabilities used to represent beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean P. Foster & Rakesh V. Vohra, 1999. "Calibration, Expected Utility and Local Optimality," Discussion Papers 1254, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1254
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    File URL: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/papers/1254.pdf
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    1. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud & Smorodinsky, Rann, 1999. "Calibrated Forecasting and Merging," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 151-169, October.
    2. Kalai, Ehud, 1989. "Games and economic behavior," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, March.
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