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A DSGE Model with Housing in the Cointegrated VAR Framework

  • Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

In order to empirically investigate the assumptions underlying a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the long-run and the short-run structure of the model may be imposed in the framework given by a cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) model. By following the method outlined in Juselius and Franchi (2007), I use the CVAR model to investigate the restrictions underlying the DSGE model in Iacoviello (2005), which is a monetary business cycle model that includes housing in order to include e ects from the nancial accelerator. This yields a common trends representation of the data subject to the theoretical constraints of the DSGE model which can be used to calculate the impulse responses for different shocks. These impulse responses are then compared to the impulse responses presented in Iacoviello (2005). The main finding is that the results given by the estimated CVAR model do not correspond well to the restrictions of the DSGE model. This is shown both by testing the cointegrating relationships implied by the long-run relations, and the response to shocks in the period for which the model is estimated. Imposing theoretical restrictions pertaining to the DSGE model in Iacoviello (2005) on his estimated VAR model yields different impulse responses from various shocks which change some of the main findings of the model. Particularly, imposing long-run homogeneity between housing prices and output and imposing the Fisher relationship which is assumed in the theoretical model seems to yield results which are opposite of what the financial accelerator, which is one of the key motivations behind the model in Iacoviello (2005), suggests. The non-stationarity of inflation and the nominal interest rate may be important reasons for this, together with the non-acceptance of the imposed long-run hypotheses.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 12712.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 03 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:12712
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  3. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  5. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2007. "Introduction to Structural Macroeconometrics
    [Structural Macroeconometrics]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  6. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  9. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
  10. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, March.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521839198 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521547871 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Johansen, Soren, 2002. "A small sample correction for tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 195-221, December.
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