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The traveler costs of unplanned transport network disruptions: An activity-based modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Jenelius
  • Lars-Goran Mattsson
  • David Levinson

    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce an activity-based modeling approach for evaluating the traveler costs of transport network disruptions. The model handles several important aspects of such events: increases in travel time may be very long in relation to the normal day-to-day fluctuations; the impact of delay may depend on the flexibility to reschedule activities; lack of information and uncertainty about travel conditions may lead to under- or over-adjustment of the daily schedule in response to the delay; delays on more than one trip may restrict the gain from rescheduling activities. We derive properties such as the value of time and schedule costs analytically. Numerical calculations show that the average cost per hour delay increases with the delay duration, so that every additional minute of delay comes with a higher cost. The cost varies depending on adjustment behavior (less adjustment, loosely speaking, giving higher cost) and scheduling flexibility (greater flexibility giving lower cost). The results indicate that existing evaluations of real network disruptions have underestimated the societal costs of the events.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Jenelius & Lars-Goran Mattsson & David Levinson, 2010. "The traveler costs of unplanned transport network disruptions: An activity-based modeling approach," Working Papers 201104, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:traveller_disruptions_costs
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11299/180011
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jara-Díaz, Sergio R. & Munizaga, Marcela A. & Greeven, Paulina & Guerra, Reinaldo & Axhausen, Kay, 2008. "Estimating the value of leisure from a time allocation model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 946-957, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transport network disruption; delay cost; schedule adjustment; activity-based model; information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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