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Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle

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  • Charles R. Hulten
  • Sylaja Srinivasan

Abstract

We estimate the rate of total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industry for the period 1973-1992, and compare the results to those obtained by Young for the East Asian Tigers. We then interpret our results in light of Krugman's hypothesis that, because the Asian Miracle was driven by capital formation under diminishing marginal returns, it is not sustainable. We suggest a reinterpretation of the sustainability problem that recognizes the true role of TFP as a motive force in output growth. Past studies have compared the TFP residual to the growth rate of output and used this ratio as a measure of the importance of TFP as a source of growth. We argue that this is an erroneous way of assessing the role of TFP, because it ignores the additional capital formation made possible by an increase in productivity and therefore understates productivity's true importance. Our estimates suggest that the understatement may be quite large, and that one might better ask if the growth rate of TFP, rather than capital growth, is sustainable.

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  • Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7441
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhattacharya, Mita & Narayan, Paresh, 2015. "Output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing: A panel cointegration analysis for India," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 171-177.
    2. Danish Hashim, 2004. "Cost & productivity in Indian textiles: Post MFA implications," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 147, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Pattnayak, Sanja S. & Thangavelu, S.M., 2005. "Economic reform and productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industries: an interaction of technical change and scale economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-615, July.
    4. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "India’s Trade Reform: Progress, Impact and Future Strategy:," International Trade 0403004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Das, Deb Kusum & Kalita, Gunajit, 2011. "Aggregate Productivity Growth in Indian Manufacturing: An Application of Domar Aggregation," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 275-302.
    6. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    7. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rosés, Joan R., 2008. "Proximate causes of economic growth in Spain, 1850-2000," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-12, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    8. Mukherjee, Soumyatanu, 2016. "Technology, trade and ‘urban poor’ in a general equilibrium model with segmented domestic factor markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 400-416.
    9. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    10. Kaustuva Barik, 2005. "Capacity Utilization in Indian Paper Industry," Microeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gupta, Abhay, 2009. "Pre-reform Conditions, Intermediate Inputs and Distortions: Solving the Indian Growth Puzzle," MPRA Paper 14481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Datta, Madhusudan, 2019. "Technological progress and sectoral shares in GDP: An analysis with reference to the Indian economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 260-269.
    14. Peter E. Robertson, 2012. "Deciphering the Hindu growth epic," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 51-69, April.
    15. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    16. Gagandeep Singh & Geetika Madaan, 2020. "An Empirical Study of the Economic Status of Punjab Concerning India," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 107-117, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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