IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7441.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle

Author

Listed:
  • Charles R. Hulten
  • Sylaja Srinivasan

Abstract

We estimate the rate of total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industry for the period 1973-1992, and compare the results to those obtained by Young for the East Asian Tigers. We then interpret our results in light of Krugman's hypothesis that, because the Asian Miracle was driven by capital formation under diminishing marginal returns, it is not sustainable. We suggest a reinterpretation of the sustainability problem that recognizes the true role of TFP as a motive force in output growth. Past studies have compared the TFP residual to the growth rate of output and used this ratio as a measure of the importance of TFP as a source of growth. We argue that this is an erroneous way of assessing the role of TFP, because it ignores the additional capital formation made possible by an increase in productivity and therefore understates productivity's true importance. Our estimates suggest that the understatement may be quite large, and that one might better ask if the growth rate of TFP, rather than capital growth, is sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7441
    Note: PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7441.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Islam, Nazrul, 1999. "International Comparison of Total Factor Productivity: A Review," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(4), pages 493-518, December.
    2. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Fikkert, Brian & Hasan, Rana, 1998. "Returns to scale in a highly regulated economy: evidence from Indian firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 51-79, June.
    5. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May.
    6. Nadiri, M. Ishaq & Prucha, Ingmar R., 1997. "Sources of growth of output and convergence of productivity in major OECD countries," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 133-146, October.
    7. Hulten, Charles R, 1973. "Divisia Index Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1017-1025, November.
    8. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Arup Mitra & Aristomène Varoudakis & Marie-Ange Véganzonès, 1998. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance in Indian Manufacturing," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 139, OECD Publishing.
    10. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    11. Hulten, Charles R, 1975. "Technical Change and the Reproducibility of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 956-965, December.
    12. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Deb Kusum & Kalita, Gunajit, 2011. "Aggregate Productivity Growth in Indian Manufacturing: An Application of Domar Aggregation," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 275-302.
    2. Bhattacharya, Mita & Narayan, Paresh, 2015. "Output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing: A panel cointegration analysis for India," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 171-177.
    3. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    4. Danish Hashim, 2004. "Cost & productivity in Indian textiles: Post MFA implications," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 147, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    5. Pattnayak, Sanja S. & Thangavelu, S.M., 2005. "Economic reform and productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industries: an interaction of technical change and scale economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-615, July.
    6. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "India’s Trade Reform: Progress, Impact and Future Strategy:," International Trade 0403004, EconWPA.
    7. Sanja S. Pattnayak & Thangavelu, S. M., 2003. "Economic Reform and Productivity growth in Indian Manufacturing Industries: An interaction of technical change and scale economies," Departmental Working Papers wp0307, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
    8. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rosés, Joan R., 2008. "Proximate causes of economic growth in Spain, 1850-2000," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-12, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    9. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    10. Mukherjee, Soumyatanu, 2016. "Technology, trade and ‘urban poor’ in a general equilibrium model with segmented domestic factor markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 400-416.
    11. Albert Bollard & Peter Klenow & Gunjam Sharma, 2013. "India's Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.
    12. Kaustuva Barik, 2005. "Capacity Utilization in Indian Paper Industry," Microeconomics 0503001, EconWPA.
    13. Peter E. Robertson, 2012. "Deciphering the Hindu growth epic," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 51-69, April.
    14. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.