Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle
We estimate the rate of total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing industry for the period 1973-1992, and compare the results to those obtained by Young for the East Asian Tigers. We then interpret our results in light of Krugman's hypothesis that, because the Asian Miracle was driven by capital formation under diminishing marginal returns, it is not sustainable. We suggest a reinterpretation of the sustainability problem that recognizes the true role of TFP as a motive force in output growth. Past studies have compared the TFP residual to the growth rate of output and used this ratio as a measure of the importance of TFP as a source of growth. We argue that this is an erroneous way of assessing the role of TFP, because it ignores the additional capital formation made possible by an increase in productivity and therefore understates productivity's true importance. Our estimates suggest that the understatement may be quite large, and that one might better ask if the growth rate of TFP, rather than capital growth, is sustainable.
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- Hulten, Charles R, 1975. "Technical Change and the Reproducibility of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 956-65, December.
- Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Hulten, Charles R, 1973. "Divisia Index Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1017-25, November.
- Fikkert, Brian & Hasan, Rana, 1998. "Returns to scale in a highly regulated economy: evidence from Indian firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 51-79, June.
- Arup Mitra & Aristomène Varoudakis & Marie-Ange Véganzonès, 1998. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance in Indian Manufacturing," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 139, OECD Publishing.
- Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May.
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