IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/31512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Manasi Deshpande
  • Rebecca Dizon-Ross

Abstract

How does the expectation that a child will receive government benefits in adulthood affect parental investments in the child's human capital? Most parents whose children receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We present randomly-selected families with the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. Reducing parents' expectations that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children's human capital. This zero effect is precisely estimated. Likely explanations include parents working more themselves, non-financial goals influencing investment, and families facing investment constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Manasi Deshpande & Rebecca Dizon-Ross, 2023. "The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment," NBER Working Papers 31512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31512
    Note: CH ED LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31512.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Aizer & Hilary W. Hoynes & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2022. "Children and the US Social Safety Net: Balancing Disincentives for Adults and Benefits for Children," NBER Working Papers 29754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    3. Jonathan Gruber & Aaron Yelowitz, 1999. "Public Health Insurance and Private Savings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1249-1274, December.
    4. Francesca Mazzolari, 2007. "Welfare Use when Approaching the Time Limit," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(3).
    5. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson & Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore, 2012. "Work incentives and the Food Stamp Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 151-162.
    6. Craig Garthwaite & Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2014. "Public Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Employment Lock," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 653-696.
    7. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2017. "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1693-1754.
    8. Alexander Strand & Matthew Messel, 2019. "The Ability Of Older Workers With Impairments To Adapt To New Jobs: Changing The Age Criteria For Social Security Disability Insurance," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 764-786, June.
    9. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu & Serdar Ozkan, 2014. "Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 818-850.
    10. Riddell, Chris & Riddell, W. Craig, 2014. "The pitfalls of work requirements in welfare-to-work policies: Experimental evidence on human capital accumulation in the Self-Sufficiency Project," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 39-49.
    11. Gordon B. Dahl & Lance Lochner, 2012. "The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1927-1956, August.
    12. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2009. "Time-Inconsistency And Welfare Program Participation: Evidence From The Nlsy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1043-1077, November.
    13. Randall K. Q. Akee & William E. Copeland & Gordon Keeler & Adrian Angold & E. Jane Costello, 2010. "Parents' Incomes and Children's Outcomes: A Quasi-experiment Using Transfer Payments from Casino Profits," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 86-115, January.
    14. Ran Abramitzky & Victor Lavy, 2014. "How Responsive Is Investment in Schooling to Changes in Redistributive Policies and in Returns?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1241-1272, July.
    15. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    16. Jeffrey Grogger & Charles Michalopoulos, 2003. "Welfare Dynamics under Time Limits," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 530-554, June.
    17. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    18. David Dean & John Pepper & Robert Schmidt & Steven Stern, 2015. "The Effects Of Vocational Rehabilitation For People With Cognitive Impairments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 399-426, May.
    19. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2013. "Does Disability Insurance Receipt Discourage Work? Using Examiner Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of SSDI Receipt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1797-1829, August.
    20. Gordon B. Dahl & Anne C. Gielen, 2021. "Intergenerational Spillovers in Disability Insurance," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 116-150, April.
    21. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2006. "Designing Optimal Disability Insurance: A Case for Asset Testing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 257-279, April.
    22. Haan, Peter & Prowse, Victoria L., 2015. "Optimal Social Assistance and Unemployment Insurance in a Life-Cycle Model of Family Labor Supply and Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 8980, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. repec:mpr:mprres:6339 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Braga, Breno & Blavin, Fredric & Gangopadhyaya, Anuj, 2020. "The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    25. Till von Wachter & Jae Song & Joyce Manchester, 2011. "Trends in Employment and Earnings of Allowed and Rejected Applicants to the Social Security Disability Insurance Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3308-3329, December.
    26. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Optimal Taxation and Human Capital Policies over the Life Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1931-1990.
    27. Manasi Deshpande & Michael Mueller-Smith, 2022. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? the Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from Ssi [“Misdemeanor Prosecution,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(4), pages 2263-2307.
    28. Jonathan de Quidt & Johannes Haushofer & Christopher Roth, 2018. "Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3266-3302, November.
    29. Manasi Deshpande & Michael G. Mueller-Smith, 2022. "Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed From SSI," NBER Working Papers 29800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Lisa Barrow & Lisa Markman & Cecilia Elena Rouse, 2009. "Technology's Edge: The Educational Benefits of Computer-Aided Instruction," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 52-74, February.
    31. C. Yiwei Zhang & Jeffrey Hemmeter & Judd B. Kessler & Robert D. Metcalfe & Robert Weathers, 2023. "Nudging Timely Wage Reporting: Field Experimental Evidence from the U.S. Supplemental Security Income Program," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1341-1353, March.
    32. Emily Oster & Ira Shoulson & E. Ray Dorsey, 2013. "Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 804-830, April.
    33. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    34. Jeffrey Grogger, 2003. "The Effects of Time Limits, the EITC, and Other Policy Changes on Welfare Use, Work, and Income among Female-Headed Families," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 394-408, May.
    35. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    36. Dynarski, Susan, 2004. "Who Benefits From the Education Saving Incentives? Income, Educational Expectations and the Value of the 529 and Coverdell," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 57(2), pages 359-383, June.
    37. Anna Aizer & Hilary Hoynes & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2022. "Children and the US Social Safety Net: Balancing Disincentives for Adults and Benefits for Children," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 149-174, Spring.
    38. Anna Aizer & Shari Eli & Joseph Ferrie & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2016. "The Long-Run Impact of Cash Transfers to Poor Families," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 935-971, April.
    39. James Berry & Rebecca Dizon-Ross & Maulik Jagnani, 2020. "Not Playing Favorites: An Experiment on Parental Fairness Preferences," Working Papers 2020-06, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    40. Jacob Bastian & Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children’s Education and Employment Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 1127-1163.
    41. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 349-397.
    42. Hilary Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Douglas Almond, 2016. "Long-Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 903-934, April.
    43. David Dean & John Pepper & Robert Schmidt & Steven Stern, 2015. "The Effects Of Vocational Rehabilitation For People With Cognitive Impairments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 399-426, May.
    44. Dhaval Dave & Hope Corman & Nancy Reichman, 2012. "Effects of Welfare Reform on Education Acquisition of Adult Women," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 251-282, June.
    45. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881.
    46. Robert Jensen, 2010. "The (Perceived) Returns to Education and the Demand for Schooling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 515-548.
    47. repec:mpr:mprres:6336 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amelia A. Hawkins & Christopher A. Hollrah & Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Gloria Aldana & Mitchell D. Wong, 2023. "The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income," NBER Working Papers 31746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vod Vilfort & Whitney Zhang, 2023. "Interpreting IV Estimators in Information Provision Experiments," Papers 2309.04793, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amelia A. Hawkins & Christopher A. Hollrah & Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Gloria Aldana & Mitchell D. Wong, 2023. "The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income," NBER Working Papers 31746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicardo S. McInnis & Katherine Michelmore & Natasha Pilkauskas, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty and Public Assistance: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Working Papers 31429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hicks, Jeffrey & Simard-Duplain, Gaëlle & Green, David A. & Warburton, William, 2022. "The effect of reducing welfare access on employment, health, and children's long-run outcomes," CLEF Working Paper Series 51, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    4. Jacob Goldin & Elaine Maag & Katherine Michelmore, 2021. "Estimating the Net Fiscal Cost of a Child Tax Credit Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 36, pages 159-195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Musab Kurnaz & Mehmet Soytas, 2019. "Early Childhood Investment and Income Taxation," 2019 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. McInnis, Nicardo, 2023. "Long-term health effects of childhood parental income," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    8. Kurnaz, Musab & Soytas, Mehmet A., 2019. "Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Taxation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 409, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Marguerite Burns & Laura Dague, 2023. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid," NBER Working Papers 31394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Barbara Broadway & Tessa LoRiggio & Chris Ryan & Anna Zhu, 2022. "Literature review on the impact of welfare policy design on children and youth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 809-840, September.
    11. Joseph Mullins, 2022. "Designing Cash Transfers in the Presence of Children's Human Capital Formation," Working Papers 2022-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    12. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    13. Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2018. "Safety Nets Investments in Children," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 89-150.
    14. Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    15. Bingley, Paul & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Ovidi, Marco, 2023. "When It Hurts the Most: Timing of Parental Job Loss and a Child's Education," IZA Discussion Papers 16367, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Regmi, Krishna, 2020. "The effect of the minimum wage on children’s cognitive achievement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Braga, Breno & Blavin, Fredric & Gangopadhyaya, Anuj, 2020. "The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    18. Martha J. Bailey & Hilary W. Hoynes & Maya Rossin-Slater & Reed Walker, 2020. "Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program," NBER Working Papers 26942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Avitabile, Ciro & de Hoyos, Rafael, 2018. "The heterogeneous effect of information on student performance: Evidence from a randomized control trial in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 318-348.
    20. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.