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A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks

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  • James Andreoni
  • Paul Feldman
  • Charles Sprenger

Abstract

Recent debate has identified important gaps in the understanding of intertemporal risks. Critical to closing these gaps is evidence on which dimension of intertemporal risk – the risk or the time – is evaluated first. Though under discounted expected utility this ordering is of no consequence, under discounted non-expected utility models the order of evaluation is critical. We provide experimental tests in which different orderings of evaluation generate different predictions for behavior. We find more support for the notion that the risk dimension is evaluated first.

Suggested Citation

  • James Andreoni & Paul Feldman & Charles Sprenger, 2017. "A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks," NBER Working Papers 24075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark B. Stewart, 1983. "On Least Squares Estimation when the Dependent Variable is Grouped," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 737-753.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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