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The Effects of Marijuana Liberalizations: Evidence from Monitoring the Future

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  • Angela K. Dills
  • Sietse Goffard
  • Jeffrey Miron

Abstract

By the end of 2016, 28 states had liberalized their marijuana laws: by decriminalizing possession, by legalizing for medical purposes, or by legalizing more broadly. More states are considering such policy changes even while supporters and opponents continue to debate their impacts. Yet evidence on these liberalizations remains scarce, in part due to data limitations. We use data from Monitoring the Future’s annual surveys of high school seniors to evaluate the impact of marijuana liberalizations on marijuana use, other substance use, alcohol consumption, attitudes surrounding substance use, youth health outcomes, crime rates, and traffic accidents. These data have several advantages over those used in prior analyses. We find that marijuana liberalizations have had minimal impact on the examined outcomes. Notably, many of the outcomes predicted by critics of liberalizations, such as increases in youth drug use and youth criminal behavior, have failed to materialize in the wake of marijuana liberalizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela K. Dills & Sietse Goffard & Jeffrey Miron, 2017. "The Effects of Marijuana Liberalizations: Evidence from Monitoring the Future," NBER Working Papers 23779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23779
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    1. Rosalie L. Pacula & David Powell & Paul Heaton & Eric L. Sevigny, 2015. "Assessing the Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana Use: The Devil is in the Details," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 7-31, January.
    2. D. Mark Anderson & Daniel I. Rees, 2014. "The Legalization of Recreational Marijuana: How Likely Is the Worst‐Case Scenario?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 221-232, January.
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    1. repec:osf:socarx:drx9f_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. D. Mark Anderson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," NBER Working Papers 26780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Zhang, Saijun & Lim, Younghee & Boyas, Javier F. & Burlaka, Viktor, 2020. "Family structure and youth illicit drug use, use disorder, and treatment services utilization," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Hollingsworth, Alex & Wing, Coady, 2020. "Tactics for design and inference in synthetic control studies: An applied example using high-dimensional data," SocArXiv fc9xt, Center for Open Science.
    5. Kalbfuss, Jörg & Odermatt, Reto & Stutzer, Alois, 2024. "Medical marijuana laws and mental health in the United States," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 307-322, July.
    6. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
    7. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    8. Dragone, Davide & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo & Zanella, Giulio, 2019. "Crime and the legalization of recreational marijuana," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 488-501.
    9. repec:osf:socarx:fc9xt_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. John Gardner & Bright Osei, 2022. "Recreational marijuana legalization and admission to the foster‐care system," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1311-1334, July.
    11. Anderson, D. Mark & Rees, Daniel I., 2021. "The Public Health Effects of Legalizing Marijuana," IZA Discussion Papers 14292, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2019. "Defeating Crime? An Economic Analysis of Cannabis Legalization Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 13814, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Alex Hollingsworth & Coady Wing & Ashley C. Bradford, 2022. "Comparative Effects of Recreational and Medical Marijuana Laws on Drug Use among Adults and Adolescents," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 515-554.
    14. Anderson, D. Mark & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," IZA Discussion Papers 12980, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Angela K. Dills & Sean E. Mulholland, 2018. "Ride‐Sharing, Fatal Crashes, and Crime," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(4), pages 965-991, April.
    16. Bencsik, Panka & Budhiraja, Saayili, 2025. "Cannabis deregulation and policing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).

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    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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