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An Empirical Analysis of Funding Costs Spillovers in the EURO-zone with Application to Systemic Risk

Author

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  • Pietro Bonaldi
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Jakub Kastl

Abstract

We propose a framework for estimation of spillovers between funding costs of individual banks. The estimation proceeds in three steps: First, using data from liquidity auctions of the European Central Bank, we estimate the funding costs in a given week for each individual bank. In the second step, we apply the adaptive elastic net (a LASSO type estimator) to this panel to estimate the financial network. Finally, using the estimated network we propose new measures of the systemicness and vulnerability of each bank. Our measure of systemicness has quite a natural interpretation, since it can roughly be viewed as the total externality a bank would impose on the funding costs of all other banks in the system. We estimate that most of the banks have fairly weak links and, therefore, if one were to suffer an adverse shock there would likely be a rather limited effect on the other ones. On the other hand, there are a few banks that are quite central: an increase in their funding costs would result in a very significant increase (up to 95 bp per 100 bp shock) in the funding costs of the other banks. Our vulnerability scores estimated using data from 2007-2008 are positively correlated with the probability of a bank being bailed out later.

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  • Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Funding Costs Spillovers in the EURO-zone with Application to Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 21462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21462
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    2. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Nail Kashaev & Natalia Lazzati & Ruli Xiao, 2023. "Peer Effects in Consideration and Preferences," Papers 2310.12272, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Marco Battaglini & Forrest W. Crawford & Eleonora Patacchini & Sida Peng, 2020. "A Graphical Lasso Approach to Estimating Network Connections: The Case of U.S. Lawmakers," NBER Working Papers 27557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2017. "The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network," Globalization Institute Working Papers 313, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "System-wide implications of funding risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1151-1181.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2016. "Trans-Atlantic Equity Volatility Connectedness: U.S. and European Financial Institutions, 2004–2014," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 81-127.
    8. Yiannis Kitromilides, 2016. "The Conundrum of Greece and the Eurozone: Puzzles, Paradoxes and Contradictions," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(2), pages 175-194, April.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Sida Peng, 2019. "Heterogeneous Endogenous Effects in Networks," Papers 1908.00663, arXiv.org.
    11. Nail Kashaev & Natalia Lazzati, 2019. "Peer Effects in Random Consideration Sets," Papers 1904.06742, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    12. Aureo de Paula & Imran Rasul & Pedro CL Souza, 2018. "Recovering social networks from panel data: Identification, simulations and an application," Documentos de Trabajo 16173, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    13. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    15. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 360, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    17. Singh, Vipul Kumar & Nishant, Shreyank & Kumar, Pawan, 2018. "Dynamic and directional network connectedness of crude oil and currencies: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 48-63.
    18. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    19. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2021. "The double‐edged sword of global integration: Robustness, fragility, and contagion in the international firm network," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 760-783, September.
    20. Mert Demirer & Umut Gokcen & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Financial Sector Volatility Connectedness and Equity Returns," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1803, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    21. Sahoko Furuta & Yudai Hatayama & Atsushi Kawakami & Yusuke Oh, 2021. "New Hedonic Quality Adjustment Method using Sparse Estimation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 39, pages 109-142, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General

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