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How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation

Author

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  • Quamrul Ashraf
  • Boris Gershman
  • Peter Howitt

Abstract

We use an agent-based computational approach to show how inflation can worsen macroeconomic performance by disrupting the mechanism of exchange in a decentralized market economy. We find that increasing the trend rate of inflation above 3 percent has a substantial deleterious effect, but lowering it below 3 percent has no significant macroeconomic consequences. Our finding remains qualitatively robust to changes in parameter values and to modifications to our model that partly address the Lucas critique. Finally, we contribute a novel explanation for why cross-country regressions may fail to detect a significant negative effect of trend inflation on output even when such an effect exists in reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Quamrul Ashraf & Boris Gershman & Peter Howitt, 2012. "How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation," NBER Working Papers 18225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18225
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and financial leverage in an agent based macroeconomic model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    2. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    3. Richard Bookstaber, 2012. "Using Agent-Based Models for Analyzing Threats to Financial Stability," Working Papers 12-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    4. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
    5. Giri, Federico & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model," FinMaP-Working Papers 65, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    6. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2014. "Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-80.
    7. Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Umberto Gostoli, 2012. "An agent-based "proof of principle" for Walrasian macroeconomic theory," CEEL Working Papers 1202, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    8. Howitt, Peter & Özak, Ömer, 2014. "Adaptive consumption behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 37-61.
    9. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    10. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:1673-1713 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kinda Hachem & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1673-1713, December.
    12. Andrea Teglio & Andrea Mazzocchetti & Linda Ponta & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2015. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Working Papers 2015/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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