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How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation

Author

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  • Ashraf, Quamrul
  • Gershman, Boris
  • Howitt, Peter

Abstract

We use an agent-based computational approach to show how inflation can worsen macroeconomic performance by disrupting the mechanism of exchange in a decentralized market economy. We find that, in our model economy, increasing the trend rate of inflation above 3% has a substantial deleterious effect, but lowering it below 3% has no significant macroeconomic consequences. Our finding remains qualitatively robust to changes in parameter values and to modifications to our model that partly address the Lucas critique. Finally, we contribute a novel explanation for why cross-country regressions may fail to detect a significant negative effect of trend inflation on output even when such an effect exists in reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2016. "How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 558-581, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:02:p:558-581_00
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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