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Future Skill Shortages in the U.S. Economy?

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  • David Neumark
  • Hans P. Johnson
  • Marisol Cuellar Mejia

Abstract

The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This could imply skill shortages in the U.S. economy. We develop near-term labor force projections of the educational demands on the workforce and the supply of workers by education to assess the potential for skill imbalances to emerge. Based on our formal projections, we see little likelihood of skill shortages emerging by the end of this decade. More tentatively, though, skill shortages are more likely as all of the baby boomers retire in later years, and skill shortages are more likely in the near-term in states with large and growing immigrant populations.

Suggested Citation

  • David Neumark & Hans P. Johnson & Marisol Cuellar Mejia, 2011. "Future Skill Shortages in the U.S. Economy?," NBER Working Papers 17213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17213
    Note: AG LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Green & Golo Henseke, 2016. "The changing graduate labour market: analysis using a new indicator of graduate jobs," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Sungjin Cho & Jihye Kam & Soohyung Lee, 2018. "Efficient Supply Of Human Capital: Role Of College Major," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1319-1343, December.
    3. Neumark, David & Johnson, Hans & Mejia, Marisol Cuellar, 2013. "Future skill shortages in the U.S. economy?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 151-167.
    4. Na Xu & Holly Porter-Morgan & Nathan Doran & Charles Clifford Keller, 2016. "Water Pollution and Leukemia: A Model for Interdisciplinary Research in the Classroom Experiences Incorporating Effective Pedagogical Approaches for Community College General Biology I Lab Students," International Journal of Higher Education, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 122-122, November.
    5. Mbadi Olila & Jackson Maalu & Florence Muindi, 2023. "Innovation Climate and Attraction and Retention of Human Capital Among Small and Medium Enterprises in Kenya: The Moderating Effect of Founder Characteristics," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 18(3), pages 1-92, June.
    6. Eric Joseph van Holm, 2017. "Makerspaces and Local Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 31(2), pages 164-173, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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